Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

Bergin, Adele; Economides, Philip; Rodríguez, Abián García; Murphy, Gavin

doi:10.26504/qec2019spr_sa_bergin

Cited by 11 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…al, 2019). At the same time, existing evidence indicates that RoI will be hit relatively hard compared to other EU countries given the open nature of the economy and its close economic relationship with the UK (see, for example, Dhingra et al, 2016;Kierzenkowski et al, 2016;Vandenbussche et al, 2019;Bergin et al, 2019). At a regional level, a recent assessment (Hantzsche and Young, 2019) of the potential impact of a customs union between the UK and EU, found that NI is one of the regions likely to be adversely affected by Brexit (8 th most negative impact out of 40 NUTS 2 regions considered.…”

Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, factors such as reduced access to the EU single market and uncertainty about the UK's future relationship with the EU mean it is likely that inward FDI to the GB and NI will be lower in the long-run (see, for example, Ebell and Warren, 2016;Dhingra et al 2017). 11 For the RoI, given that it is already an attractive destination for FDI, Brexit could lead to an opportunity for firms to relocate investment in order to remain within the EU with full access to the EU single market or some FDI that otherwise would have gone to the UK (in the absence of Brexit) may be diverted to the RoI (Lawless and Morgenroth, 2016;Bergin et al 2019).…”

Section: The Importance Of the Multinational Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

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The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll

McGuinness

Bergin

2020

Cambridge Journal of Economics

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Abstract Given the increased prominence of a border poll in Ireland, particularly following the outcome of the Brexit referendum, this paper provides an initial assessment of some of the issues that are likely to become central in any debate on this issue. We examine the relative income and growth position of Northern Ireland within a UK and Irish regional framework over time. We further compare, and contrast, in detail aspects of the structure of both economies on the island of Ireland in the areas of educational attainment, trade orientation and the role of Foreign Direct Investment. The paper goes on to analyse other relevant issues, such as the relative strength and weaknesses of the healthcare systems and the factors determining the potential economic cost of Irish unification. The objective of the research is to initiate an evidence-based approach to the question of a border poll and to provide an initial indication of the breadth of detail and analysis required for any debate to proceed in a meaningful manner.

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Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Importance Of the Multinational Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll

McGuinness

Bergin

2020

Cambridge Journal of Economics

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“…The Irish and the United Kingdom economies are deeply integrated across several dimensions including trade and the labour market (Arriola et al, 2018). Production processes in many industries are increasingly fragmented across national borders and a common labour market was established between the two countries even before EU membership (Bergin et al, 2019) As such, Brexit has a large effect on the Irish economy, more than other EU member state. Even with a UK-EU FTA, Irish GDP would decline 2.0% in the medium term, where much of the decline is due to divergence in regulations.…”

Section: The Effects Of Leaving the Single Market On Individual Eu Mementioning

confidence: 99%

The trade impact of the UK’s exit from the EU Single Market

Arriola¹,

Benz²,

Mourougane³

et al. 2020

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 2  ECO/WKP(2020)39 THE TRADE IMPACT OF THE UK'S EXIT FROM THE EU SINGLE MARKET Unclassified OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s). Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works. Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,

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“…The UK is deeply integrated with the EU and its decision to exit from this trading block has no parallel in modern history 26. Almost one-half of the UK’s food is imported: 30% comes from the EU, and another 11% comes from non-EU countries under the terms of trade deals negotiated by the EU.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach

Barons

Aspinall

2020

BMJ Open

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Introduction Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with poor chronic disease management. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Whereas short-term household incomes are likely to remain static, increased food prices would be a significant driver of food insecurity. Objectives To investigate food price drivers for household food security and its health consequences in the United Kingdom under scenarios of Deal and No deal for Britain's exit from the European Union. To estimate the 5% and 95% quantiles of the projected price distributions. Design Structured expert judgement elicitation, a well-established method for quantifying uncertainty, using experts. In July 2018, each expert estimated the median, 5% and 95% quantiles of changes in price for ten food categories under Brexit Deal and No-deal to June 2020 assuming Brexit had taken place on 29th March 2019. These were aggregated based on the accuracy and informativeness of the experts on calibration questions. Participants Ten specialists with expertise in food procurement, retail, agriculture, economics, statistics and household food security. Results when combined in proportions used to calculate Consumer Prices Index food basket costs, median food price change for Brexit with a Deal is expected to be +6.1% [90% credible interval:-3%, +17%] and with No deal +22.5% [+1%, +52%] Conclusions The number of households experiencing food insecurity and its severity are likely to increase because of expected sizeable increases in median food prices after Brexit. Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards the upper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low food budget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health services in both the short and longer term is likely to increase due to the effects of food insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions. Overall % change ONS CPI sub-Foods, with category weights Mean +6.4% ± 6.0 Median +6.1% [-2.7, +16.9] Mean +24.0% ± 15.4 Median +22.5% [+1.49, +51.7] Food basket cost changes by June 2020 (in £'s) Change in CPI weekly cost relative to 2018 year end Basket total £58.00* Mean +£3.78 ± £3.76 Median +£3.53 [-£1.90, +£10.41] Mean +£13.97 ± £9.52 Median +£13.00 [+£0.08, +£31.02] Change in family of 4 Healthy Food Basket basis weekly cost £93.56** Mean +£6.30 ± £6.71 Median +£5.80 [-£3.68, +£18.17] Mean +£22.58 ± £16.14 Median+£20.98 [-£1.07, +£50.98] Change in single pensioner Healthy Food Basket basis weekly cost £35.44** Mean +£2.28 ± £2.56 Median +£2.09 [-£1.51, +£6.80] Mean +£8.11 ± £6.23 Median +£7.55 [-£1.05, +£18.99]

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Ireland and Brexit: modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios

Cited by 11 publications

References 14 publications

The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll

The political economy of a Northern Ireland border poll

The trade impact of the UK’s exit from the EU Single Market

Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach

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