2011
DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.570697
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Investment under uncertainty and volatility estimation risk

Abstract: This article considers the implications of volatility estimation risk in real options theory. We construct confidence intervals for critical project values and options prices. An empirical example in lease investment evaluation for an offshore petroleum tract shows that confidence intervals can be substantial when a limited amount of data are used to estimate volatility

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Cited by 3 publications
(2 citation statements)
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“…Other articles discussing real option volatility include Davis (1998), Cobb and Charnes (2004) and Godinho and Costa (2007). Dotsis et al (2012) provide a framework for examining the impact of uncertain volatilities on option prices.…”
Section: Real Optionsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Other articles discussing real option volatility include Davis (1998), Cobb and Charnes (2004) and Godinho and Costa (2007). Dotsis et al (2012) provide a framework for examining the impact of uncertain volatilities on option prices.…”
Section: Real Optionsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The real options analysis is so effective in the current business climate because of its explicit recognition process according to which future decisions designed to maximize value will depend on new information that will not be available or possible to obtain until after the initial investment has been made (Del Giudice et al, 2014;Dotsis et al, 2012;Fanklin & Diallo, 2012;Hult et al, 2010, Lankton & Luft, 2008.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%