A 10-layered, finite-volume advection-dispersion model with real-time meteorological and freshwater runoff drivers investigated the interannual differences in the transport of Downs herring Clupea harengus L. larvae in the southern North Sea. Simulations were carried out for the winters of 1989 and 1996 to 2003. As they grew, the concentrations of herring larvae developed vertical behaviour. Meteorological forcing transported Downs herring larvae to the nursery grounds in the eastern North Sea with large interannual differences. Diel vertical movement was relatively unimportant in the transport of larvae in the hydrographically mixed southern North Sea. Year classes with less transport of larvae from the hatching area (which was generally warmer) were associated with greater abundances of young Downs herring in the ICES International Bottom Trawl Survey. This implies that retention, rather than dispersal or delivery of larvae to nursery grounds, is associated with the determination of year class strength in Downs herring.KEY WORDS: Clupea harengus · Biophysical models · Downs · Recruitment · Nursery · Drift
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherMar Ecol Prog Ser 390: [183][184][185][186][187][188][189][190][191][192][193][194] 2009 1995). Most of the dispersive drift from the spawning grounds of herring stocks in western European waters is in an easterly direction , although other studies have suggested that retention of larvae is important for recruitment success (Iles & Sinclair 1982, Sinclair & Tremblay 1984. On the continental shelf, the local hydrography is highly influenced by meteorological forcing through wind, pressure and runoff, with additional far-field effects (Otto et al. 1990), whilst near the shelf, edge hydrography is also influenced by large-scale basin effects and oceanographic currents (Fernand et al. 2006). Most of the previous studies (e.g. Bartsch et al. 1989, Nichols & Brander 1989 of North Sea herring larval drift were carried out prior to the use of geostrophic (densitydriven) real-time models and thus failed to replicate most of the interannual variability. In addition, they did not account for the influence of freshwater runoff, which is important in the southern North Sea.In the present study we modelled the transport of substances (larvae) as a function of advective and dispersive transport in order to investigate the interannual variability in transport. The larvae were assigned behaviour in the vertical plane, which is different from individual-based modelling approaches or particle tracking of ichthyoplankton , Hinrichsen et al. 2003. We did not model behaviour in the horizontal plane, as this is less important for herring prior to the onset of metamorphosis (Henderson 1987, Gallego & Heath 1994. The sensitivity of the modelled transport to many of the assumptions about diel vertical behaviour was tested, and the final results were compared to empirical data and indices of recruitment in Downs herring.
DATA AND METHODSHydrodyna...