Investigation of the predictability and physical mechanisms of an extreme-rainfall-producing mesoscale convective system along the Meiyu front in East China: An ensemble approach

Luo, Yali; Chen, Yangruixue

doi:10.1002/2015jd023584

Cited by 73 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 70 publications

(120 reference statements)

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“…Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1002/2016JD025913 covers the Yangtze River basin and the Jiang-Huai region, supplying abundant water vapor favorable for the occurrence of precipitation. Jiang-Huai region is dominated by Meiyu rain belt during the summer season [Ding et al, 2008;Luo and Chen, 2015]. An enhanced WNPSH transports more water vapor to the southern flank of Jiang-Huai region.…”

Section: Water Vapor Transport Background Of the East Asia Summer Monmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summer extreme precipitation in eastern China: Mechanisms and impacts

et al. 2017

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With the highest population density in China, eastern China has an unshakable position in Chinese socioeconomic development. To understand the precipitation changes and the related mechanisms is of great significance for regional management of water resources and agricultural irrigation. In this study, the impacts of western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) on precipitation changes in eastern China and the underlying processes are investigated. The results indicate that the strength and location of WNPSH are in close relations with the changes of summer precipitation in eastern China, and their influences vary across both space and time. In particular, WNPSH exerts remarkable impacts on precipitation in June and July in Jiang‐Huai region and precipitation in June in South China such as the Pearl River basin. The interannual variations of WNPSH exhibit significant correlations with water vapor flux in East Asia, and the variations of the location and direction of the west flank of the WNPSH are well corroborated with the influences of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) on precipitation in eastern China. The westward extension of WNPSH tends to favor the strong moisture transport to East Asia, intensify the EASM, and thus increase water vapor flux in East Asia, which greatly benefits the occurrence of Meiyu regimes in Jiang‐Huai region. Besides, analysis results also show that the westward extension of WNPSH drives tropical cyclones southward so as to increase the occurrence of extreme precipitation in South China. This study helps to bridge the knowledge gap in the relationship between WNPSH, tropical cyclones, and summer precipitation events in eastern China.

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Section: Water Vapor Transport Background Of the East Asia Summer Monmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summer extreme precipitation in eastern China: Mechanisms and impacts

et al. 2017

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“…The MCS producing the heavy rainfall of case 3 initiated and developed locally in central Guangdong (Figure c). At its mature stage it consisted of several well‐defined, southwest‐northeast oriented band‐shaped convective precipitation regions with reflectivity >35 dB Z (simply referred to herein as rainbands) during its mature stage (Figures c3 and c4), exhibiting “band training” [ Luo et al ., ; Luo and Chen , ] of the rainbands along the MCS. The rainbands appeared quasi‐stationary, continuously producing rain over the same areas for nearly 20 h (i.e., 1630–1230 UTC, Figures c2–c5).…”

Section: Forecast Evaluation For Four Torrential Rainfall Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of differences in the initial moisture field on predictions of an extreme rain‐producing MCS, ahead of a Meiyu front in central East China, has been investigated by Luo and Chen [] using ensemble simulations with the WRF model [ Skamarock et al ., ], following the method proposed by Melhauser and Zhang []. Luo and Chen [] found that reducing the initial precipitable water in the upstream region by only a few millimeters could cause the maximum 14 h accumulated precipitation in the simulations to change from 85 mm to 259 mm. For the cases of interest to the present study, the water vapor is transported by the low‐level southwesterly flow in the ensembles (Figure ).…”

Section: Key Synoptic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

Huang

Luo

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data set, this study evaluates the ability of global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korean Meteorological Administration, and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to predict presummer rainy season (April–June) precipitation in south China. Evaluation of 5 day forecasts in three seasons (2013–2015) demonstrates the higher skill of probability matching forecasts compared to simple ensemble mean forecasts and shows that the deterministic forecast is a close second. The EPSs overestimate light‐to‐heavy rainfall (0.1 to 30 mm/12 h) and underestimate heavier rainfall (>30 mm/12 h), with JMA being the worst. By analyzing the synoptic situations predicted by the identified more skillful (ECMWF) and less skillful (JMA and CMA) EPSs and the ensemble sensitivity for four representative cases of torrential rainfall, the transport of warm‐moist air into south China by the low‐level southwesterly flow, upstream of the torrential rainfall regions, is found to be a key synoptic factor that controls the quantitative precipitation forecast. The results also suggest that prediction of locally produced torrential rainfall is more challenging than prediction of more extensively distributed torrential rainfall. A slight improvement in the performance is obtained by shortening the forecast lead time from 30–36 h to 18–24 h to 6–12 h for the cases with large‐scale forcing, but not for the locally produced cases.

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“…Houtekamer et al () introduced the multiphysics approach in which each ensemble member uses a distinct parametrization of the same physical process. Multiphysics have been shown to improve ensemble forecast skill on the convection‐parametrizing (Berner et al , ; ) and on the convection‐permitting scale (Clark et al ; Luo and Chen, ). In the multiparameter approach (Murphy et al ), single parameters in the physics parametrizations are varied within their range of allowed values or perturbed randomly about their default value.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An evaluation of the convection‐permitting ensemble COSMO‐E for three contrasting precipitation events in Switzerland

Klasa

Arpagaus

Walser

et al. 2018

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Specific aspects of the performance of COSMO‐E, a newly operational convection‐permitting ensemble prediction system run by the Swiss national weather service, are evaluated for three contrasting precipitation events and compared with its driving model, the ECMWF ensemble (EC ENS). The events include locally triggered air‐mass convection on four consecutive days (CONV), a complex flood‐producing rainfall episode (LSF1), and a summertime cold‐frontal precipitation event (LSF2). Investigating the precipitation forecasts reveals that COSMO‐E outperforms EC ENS in all cases in terms of precipitation pattern, whereas both ensembles fail in predicting the correct domain‐averaged precipitation for LSF1 and struggle with the correct timing of the daily precipitation onset for CONV. For LSF2, EC ENS produces an almost perfect time series of domain‐averaged precipitation, but this seemingly excellent forecast fails in predicting the spatial distribution. Spread–error relationships also yield a rather complex picture. The higher resolution of COSMO‐E leads to increased spread and reduced underdispersion for near‐surface variables. However, in the free troposphere the two ensembles perform similarly, and the agreement of spread and error varies between cases, variables and levels. For both events with large‐scale advection, underdispersion occurs for mid‐tropospheric relative humidity near fronts, whose propagation is overconfident in EC ENS, while for the convective event COSMO‐E clearly shows larger spread than EC ENS. Because frontal propagation is largely determined by lateral boundary conditions, this underdispersion also occurs for COSMO‐E. In summary, this study confirms the benefit of a convection‐permitting model for many aspects of ensemble forecasting, and illustrates the challenge of robustly assessing the quality of an ensemble forecast for hydrometeorologically relevant events.

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Investigation of the predictability and physical mechanisms of an extreme-rainfall-producing mesoscale convective system along the Meiyu front in East China: An ensemble approach

Cited by 73 publications

References 70 publications

Summer extreme precipitation in eastern China: Mechanisms and impacts

Summer extreme precipitation in eastern China: Mechanisms and impacts

Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts by TIGGE ensembles for south China during the presummer rainy season

An evaluation of the convection‐permitting ensemble COSMO‐E for three contrasting precipitation events in Switzerland

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