Investigation of the Importance of Climatic Factors in COVID-19 Worldwide Intensity

Abstract

The transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the severity of the related disease (COVID-19) are influenced by a large number of factors. This study aimed to investigate the correlation of COVID-19 case and death rates with possible causal climatological and sociodemographic factors for the March to May 2020 (first wave) period in a worldwide scale by statistically processing data for over one hundred countries. The weather parameters considered herein were air temperature, relative humidity, cumulative precipitation, and cloud cover, while sociodemographic factors included population density, median age, and government measures in response to the pandemic. The results of this study indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between average atmospheric temperature and the COVID-19 case and death rates, with chi-square test p-values in the 0.001–0.02 range. Regarding sociodemographic factors, there is an even stronger dependence of the case and death rates on the population median age (p = 0.0006–0.0012). Multivariate linear regression analysis using Lasso and the forward stepwise approach revealed that the median age ranks first in importance among the examined variables, followed by the temperature and the delays in taking first governmental measures or issuing stay-at-home orders.

How (Un)sustainable Environments Are Related to the Diffusion of COVID-19: The Relation between Coronavirus Disease 2019, Air Pollution, Wind Resource and Energy

“…[13]. In general, several studies present the hypothesis that atmospheric pollution associated with certain climatological factors (such as, high humidity and low wind speed) may support a longer permanence of viral particles in the air, fostering the rapid spread of COVID-19 within polluted regions [5,11,12,14,15]. In this context, Martorell-Marugán et al [16] suggest new tools for supporting increased data analysis and statistical capabilities that allow users to explore trends and associations between critical environmental data and the spread of COVID-19 in society.…”

Altitude and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in the First Pandemic Wave in Spain

“…Other ecological studies have evaluated the relationship between environmental factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection, and many have found an inverse relationship between air temperature and humidity and SARS-CoV-2 infection [2,12,13,[18][19][20][21][22]. These studies have been based on COVID-19 reported cases that may be affected by differences in the completeness of reporting.…”

“…The Geographical Institute was consulted to obtain the province extension, as well as the latitude and altitude above sea level of their respective capital city (https://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/ane-datos-geograficos/-/datos-geograficos/ datosPoblacion?tipoBusqueda=capitales, accessed date 21 January 2021). Population density was calculated as inhabitants per km 2 .…”

“…The role of environmental and demographic conditions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is not well known. Geographical comparisons have associated higher atmospheric temperature and humidity with lower SARS-CoV-2 transmission [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ]. However, these studies may be affected by differences in the completeness of COVID-19 reporting in the first wave, because a high and variable percentage of cases were not confirmed [ 5 ].…”

“…Transmission increased steeply during the first half of March, and the main intervention was a lockdown implemented simultaneously in all Spanish regions on 15 March 2020 [ 15 ]. No other relevant intervention was introduced; therefore, the important geographical differences observed in COVID-19 cumulative incidence in the first pandemic wave were probably related to case reporting, and to environmental and socio-demographical factors [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 ].…”