Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Abstract

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

Forecasting some climate parameters of Türkiye using the SSP3-7.0 scenario for the years 2040–2059

“…These changes have direct implications for extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves (Bektaş and Sakarya, 2023). As for projected temperature increase estimates for Türkiye, the projected increase of 1.5°C aligns with findings from Oruc et al, (2019), which investigates the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Türkiye. They emphasizes the consequences of non-stationary climate patterns and the potential intensification of extreme weather events due to climate change.…”

The Relationship between the Built Environment and Climate Change: The Case of Turkish Provinces

“…The relationship among changes in climate, land use, and the built environment has been examined from different perspectives in the literature. Various studies have been conducted on the effects caused by changes in the built environment and climate change using climate change indicators and land carbon stores [28], urbanization and high flow levels in basins [29,30], the urban built environment and temperature [31][32][33][34][35], the impacts of the urban built environment and climate change on urban flooding [36][37][38], and the impacts of the urban built environment on extreme weather events [39,40].…”

“…Gülbaz et al [29] analyzed low-impact urbanization implementations on surface runoff for the case of Istanbul University's Avcılar Campus. Balaban [45] investigated global warming and climate change with regard to urban and urbanization features, while Oruç et al [40] analyzed climate change, extreme rains, and their effects for the case of Etimesgut District in Ankara. Meanwhile, one study [35] conducted in Türkiye examined the effect of urban growth on ground surface temperatures in Mersin and determined Mersin city center to have experienced an average temperature increase of 6 • C as a result of the destruction and transformation of many natural areas into artificial ones over 30 years.…”