Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives

Teufel, Bernardo; Diro, G. T.; Whan, Kirien; Milrad, Shawn M.; Jeong, Do Un; Ganji, Arman; Huziy, O.; Winger, Katja; Gyakum, John R.; Elía, Ramón de; Zwiers, Francis W.; Sushama, Laxmi

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3239-8

Cited by 51 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…RCMs have been employed for regional-scale studies to analyze climate change impacts on different extremes and natural hazards. In particular, Canadian RCMs have been used for the assessment of extreme precipitation (Diaconescu et al, 2016), temperature (Whan et al, 2016;Jeong et al, 2016a, b), wind and snow , floods (Jeong et al, 2014b;Teufel et al, 2017), and droughts (Jeong et al, 2014a) over North America. Although freezing precipitation is a key variable leading to atmospheric ice accretion, it is rarely available from RCM outputs due to the absence of precipitation typing algorithms in some RCMs, low demand and limited data storage capacity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

Jeong

Cannon

Zhang

2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation (FP) can lead to severe damage and the failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads – those used to design infrastructure over North America (NA) – for future periods of specified global mean temperature change (GMTC), relative to the recent 1986–2016 period, using a large 50-member initial-condition ensemble of the CanRCM4 regional climate model, driven by CanESM2 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The analysis is based on 3-hourly ice accretions on horizontal, vertical and radial surfaces calculated based on FP diagnosed by the offline Bourgouin algorithm and wind speed during FP. The CanRCM4 ensemble projects an increase in future design ice loads for most of northern NA and decreases for most of southern NA and some northeastern coastal regions. These changes are mainly caused by regional increases in future upper-level and surface temperatures associated with global warming. Projected changes in design ice thickness are also affected by changes in future precipitation intensity and surface wind speed. Changes in upper-level and surface temperature conditions for FP occurrence in CanRCM4 are in broad agreement with those from nine global climate models but display regional differences under the same level of global warming, indicating that a larger multi-model, multi-scenario ensemble may be needed to better account for additional sources of structural and scenario uncertainty. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40∘ N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

Jeong

Cannon

Zhang

2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…These efforts eventually led to the creation of Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) modelling system by Pietroniro et al (), which couples the Canadian land surface scheme (CLASS; Verseghy, ; Verseghy, McFarlane, & Lazare, ) and the WATROUTE routing module of the WATFLOOD hydrological model (Kouwen, ). CLASS is typical of a highly parameterized LSS and has been widely used for various purposes including weather and climate modelling in Canada (e.g., Ganji, Sushama, Verseghy, & Harvey, ; Teufel et al, ; Wang, Grant, Verseghy, & Black, ). CLASS is also linked with the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM; Arora, ; Arora & Boer, ) to produce fluxes of energy, water, and CO 2 at the land surface using vegetation and ecosystem dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multicriteria sensitivity analysis as a diagnostic tool for understanding model behaviour and characterizing model uncertainty

Haghnegahdar

Razavi

Yassin

et al. 2017

Hydrological Processes

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Complex hydrological models are being increasingly used nowadays for many purposes such as studying the impact of climate and land‐use change on water resources. However, building a high‐fidelity model, particularly at large scales, remains a challenging task, due to complexities in model functioning and behaviour and uncertainties in model structure, parameterization, and data. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA), which characterizes how the variation in the model response is attributed to variations in its input factors (e.g., parameters and forcing data), provides an opportunity to enhance the development and application of these complex models. In this paper, we advocate using GSA as an integral part of the modelling process by discussing its capabilities as a tool for diagnosing model structure and detecting potential defects, identifying influential factors, characterizing uncertainty, and selecting calibration parameters. Accordingly, we conduct a comprehensive GSA of a complex land surface–hydrology model, Modélisation Environmentale–Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), which combines the Canadian land surface scheme with a hydrological routing component, WATROUTE. Various GSA experiments are carried out using a new technique, called Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces, for alternative hydroclimatic conditions in Canada using multiple criteria, various model configurations, and a full set of model parameters. Results from this study reveal that, in addition to different hydroclimatic conditions and SA criteria, model configurations can also have a major impact on the assessment of sensitivity. GSA can identify aspects of the model internal functioning that are counter‐intuitive and thus help the modeller to diagnose possible model deficiencies and make recommendations for improving development and application of the model. As a specific outcome of this work, a list of the most influential parameters for the MESH model is developed. This list, along with some specific recommendations, is expected to assist the wide community of MESH and Canadian land surface scheme users, to enhance their modelling applications.

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“…However, a choice needs to be made about the definition of counterfactual SSTs. Attribution conclusions can be sensitive to the choice of counterfactual SSTs Teufel et al 2017), which can only be modelled, and models simulate diverse responses to forcing. The choice of counterfactual SST pattern matters, as SST gradients can affect the pattern of zonal wind change (Haarsma et al 2013).…”

Section: Attribution With Atmosphere-only Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

et al. 2017

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Investigation of the 2013 Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives

Cited by 51 publications

References 36 publications

Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

Multicriteria sensitivity analysis as a diagnostic tool for understanding model behaviour and characterizing model uncertainty

Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

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