Investigation of seasonal droughts and related large-scale atmospheric dynamics over the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan

et al. 2021

Preprint

The long-term drought monitoring and its assessment are of great importance for meteorological disaster risk management. The recurrent spells of heatwaves and droughts have severely affected the environmental conditions worldwide, including Pakistan. The present work sought to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in drought characteristics over Pakistan during Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons. The role of large-scale circulation and interannual mode of climate variability is further explored to identify the physical mechanisms associated with droughts in the region. Monthly precipitation and temperature data (1983–2019) from 53 meteorological stations were used to study drought characteristics, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen’s Slope (SS), and Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) tests were applied on the drought index to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the historical trend. The state-of-the-art Bayesian Dynamic Linear (BDL) model was further used to analyze large scale climate drivers of droughts, analysis revealed an increase in drought severity mostly over arid to semi-arid regions for both cropping seasons. Temperature played a significant role in defining droughts over dry and hot seasons, while rainfall is influential over the western disturbances (WD) influenced region. The analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns revealed that large-scale changes in wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity and geopotential height anomalies are the likely drivers of droughts in the region. We found that Niño4, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO4.0) Index are the most influential factors for seasonal droughts across Pakistan. Overall, the findings provide a better understanding of drought-prone areas in the region, and this information is of potential use for mitigating and managing drought risks.

Section: Trend Descriptive Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Influence of large-scale circulation and interannual modes of climate variability on seasonal drought characteristics over Pakistan

et al. 2021

Preprint

Evaluating the meteorological drought characteristics over Pakistan using in situ observations and reanalysis products

Intl Journal of Climatology

et al. 2021

Drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters occurring in Pakistan and has a great influence on livelihood, agriculture, and economy. The availability of long‐term high‐quality reanalysis products over Pakistan has been of great concern in recent decades. Here, we conduct drought assessment in Pakistan based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 3, 6, and 12 months timescales during 1983–2018. We use long‐term in situ observations to evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis products, including Climatic Research Unit (CRU TS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction version II (NCEP‐2), European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Version‐5 (ERA‐5), and Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version II (MERRA‐2). The main results are summarized as follows: (a) drought indices and drought areas assessed from reanalysis products are relatively more representative of historical droughts that had occurred in southern Pakistan and overestimation is evident for drought severity in western than eastern Pakistan; (b) statistically significant increasing trends (1984–1998 and 2000–2010) in monthly drought areas and occurrence are evident by CRU TS and MERRA‐2 in dominant arid and semiarid regions; (c) climate variables and drought features of southern Pakistan are best represented by CRU TS and MERRA‐2, while that of southwestern and western parts are best represented by ERA‐5; (d) the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) results range from −2 to 1, where the NSE of SPEI values (−1.0) show relatively weaker than SPI values (0.5) in most parts of the regions, specifically in the southern Pakistan; (e) a strong positive linear relationship on a monthly scale is evident in CRU TS, MERRA‐2, and ERA‐5 exhibiting relatively high correlation coefficient (0.84), except for NCEP‐2. Furthermore, the SPEI results are found to be better than SPI; thus, this study suggests SPEI may be more suitable than SPI in monitoring droughts under climate change.

Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan

Intl Journal of Climatology

et al. 2021

Long‐term drought monitoring and its assessment are of great importance for meteorological disaster risk management. The recurrent spells of heat waves and droughts have severely affected the environmental conditions worldwide, including Pakistan. The present work sought to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in drought characteristics over Pakistan during Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons. The role of large‐scale circulation and interannual mode of climate variability is further explored to identify the physical mechanisms associated with droughts in the region. Monthly precipitation and temperature data (1983–2019) from 53 meteorological stations were used to study drought characteristics, using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The nonparametric Mann–Kendall, Sen's Slope, and Sequential Mann–Kendall tests were applied on the drought index to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the historical trend. The state‐of‐the‐art Bayesian Dynamic Linear model was further used to analyse large‐scale climate drivers of droughts, revealed an increase in drought severity, mostly over arid to semiarid regions for both cropping seasons. While temperature played a significant role in defining droughts over dry and hot seasons, rainfall is influential over the western disturbances influenced region. The analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns revealed that large‐scale changes in wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and geopotential height anomalies are the likely drivers of droughts in the region. We found that Niño4, sea surface temperature, and multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO4.0) Index are the most influential factors for seasonal droughts across Pakistan. Overall, the findings provide a better understanding of drought‐prone areas in the region, and this information is of potential use for mitigating and managing drought risks.