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Volume 3 of 4Volume 2 PDF Volume 3 PDF Volume 1 PDF Volume 4 PDFNREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Renewable Electricity Futures Study Edited ByHand, M.M. National Renewable Energy LaboratoryBaldwin, S. U.S. Department of EnergyDeMeo, E. Renewable EnergyConsulting Services, Inc. Reilly, J. Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMai, T. National Renewable Energy LaboratoryArent, D. Joint Institute for Strategic Energy AnalysisPorro, G. National Renewable Energy LaboratoryMeshek, M. National Renewable Energy LaboratorySandor, D. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Suggested Citations PerspectiveThe Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) provides an analysis of the grid integration opportunities, challenges, and implications of high levels of renewable electricity generation for the U.S. electric system. The study is not a market or policy assessment. Rather, RE Futures examines renewable energy resources and many technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid, and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. RE Futures results indicate that a future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible and that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway. The central conclusion of the analysis is that renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the United States.The renewable technologies explored in this study are components of a diverse set of clean energy solutions that also includes nuclear, efficient natural gas, clean coal, and energy efficiency. Understanding all of these technology pathways and their potential contributions to the future U.S. electric power system can inform the development of integrated portfolio scenarios. RE Futures focuses on the extent to which U.S. electricity needs can be supplied by renewable energy sources, including biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind.The study explores grid integration issues using models with unprecedented geographic and time resolution for the contiguous United States. The analysis (1) assesses a variety of scenarios with prescribed levels of renewable electricity generation in 2050, from 30% to 90%, with a focus on 80% (with nearly 50% from variable wind and solar photovoltaic generation); (2) identifies the characteristics of a U.S. electricity system that would be needed to accommodate such levels; and (3) describes some of the associated challenges and implications of realizing such a future. In addition to the central conclusion noted above, RE Futures finds that ...
Volume 3 of 4Volume 2 PDF Volume 3 PDF Volume 1 PDF Volume 4 PDFNREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Renewable Electricity Futures Study Edited ByHand, M.M. National Renewable Energy LaboratoryBaldwin, S. U.S. Department of EnergyDeMeo, E. Renewable EnergyConsulting Services, Inc. Reilly, J. Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMai, T. National Renewable Energy LaboratoryArent, D. Joint Institute for Strategic Energy AnalysisPorro, G. National Renewable Energy LaboratoryMeshek, M. National Renewable Energy LaboratorySandor, D. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Suggested Citations PerspectiveThe Renewable Electricity Futures Study (RE Futures) provides an analysis of the grid integration opportunities, challenges, and implications of high levels of renewable electricity generation for the U.S. electric system. The study is not a market or policy assessment. Rather, RE Futures examines renewable energy resources and many technical issues related to the operability of the U.S. electricity grid, and provides initial answers to important questions about the integration of high penetrations of renewable electricity technologies from a national perspective. RE Futures results indicate that a future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible and that further work is warranted to investigate this clean generation pathway. The central conclusion of the analysis is that renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the United States.The renewable technologies explored in this study are components of a diverse set of clean energy solutions that also includes nuclear, efficient natural gas, clean coal, and energy efficiency. Understanding all of these technology pathways and their potential contributions to the future U.S. electric power system can inform the development of integrated portfolio scenarios. RE Futures focuses on the extent to which U.S. electricity needs can be supplied by renewable energy sources, including biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, and wind.The study explores grid integration issues using models with unprecedented geographic and time resolution for the contiguous United States. The analysis (1) assesses a variety of scenarios with prescribed levels of renewable electricity generation in 2050, from 30% to 90%, with a focus on 80% (with nearly 50% from variable wind and solar photovoltaic generation); (2) identifies the characteristics of a U.S. electricity system that would be needed to accommodate such levels; and (3) describes some of the associated challenges and implications of realizing such a future. In addition to the central conclusion noted above, RE Futures finds that ...
This report describes a new Berkeley Lab approach for modeling the likely peak electricity load reductions from proposed energy efficiency programs in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This method is presented in the context of the commercial unitary air conditioning (CUAC) energy efficiency standards. A previous report investigating the residential central air conditioning (RCAC) load shapes in NEMS revealed that the peak reduction results were lower than expected. This effect was believed to be due in part to the presence of the squelch, a program algorithm designed to ensure changes in the system load over time are consistent with the input historic trend. The squelch applies a system load-scaling factor that scales any differences between the end-use bottom-up and system loads to maintain consistency with historic trends. To obtain more accurate peak reduction estimates, a new approach for modeling the impact of peaky end uses in NEMS-BT has been developed. The new approach decrements the system load directly, reducing the impact of the squelch on the final results. This report also discusses a number of additional factors, in particular non-coincidence between end-use loads and system loads as represented within NEMS, and their impacts on the peak reductions calculated by NEMS. Using Berkeley Lab's new double-decrement approach reduces the conservation load factor (CLF) on an input load decrement from 25% down to 19% for a SEER 13 CUAC trial standard level, as seen in NEMS-BT output. About 4 GW more in peak capacity reduction results from this new approach as compared to Berkeley Lab's traditional end-use decrement approach, which relied solely on lowering end use energy consumption. The new method has been fully implemented and tested in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) version of NEMS and will routinely be applied to future versions. This capability is now available for use in future enduse efficiency or other policy analysis that requires accurate representation of time varying load reductions ix
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