For genes with reliable estimates of disease risk associated with loss-of-function variants, case-control data can be used to estimate the proportion of variants of typical risk effect for defined groups of variants, of relevance for variant classification. A calculation was derived for a maximum likelihood estimate of the proportion of pathogenic variants of typical effect from case-control data and applied to rare variant counts for ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, PALB2, RAD51C, and RAD51D from published breast cancer studies: BEACCON (5770 familial cases and 5741 controls) and breast cancer risk after diagnostic sequencing (60,466 familial and population-based cases and 53,461