Investigating Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin with Wavelet Analysis and the Mann-Kendall Test

Chen, Yuzhuang; Guan, Yiqing; Guang-hua, Shao; Zhang, Danrong

doi:10.3390/w8030077

Cited by 66 publications

(30 citation statements)

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“…The non-parametric trend diagnosis MK test was used in the present study. The MK test has been widely used for the detection of trends in metrological or hydrological temporal data series [44,45]. The method is less sensitive to the abrupt break points and is robust against outliers and missing values [46].…”

Section: Mann-kendall Test (Mk)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The method is less sensitive to the abrupt break points and is robust against outliers and missing values [46]. However, the test is sensitive to the serial correlation that may affect the test results [45,47]. During the current study, the sequential correlation approach was employed prior to applying the MK test to examine the statistical significance of trends in the climatic data series.…”

Section: Mann-kendall Test (Mk)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature in Punjab, Pakistan

Nawaz

Chen

et al. 2019

Water

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Identifying the changes in precipitation and temperature at a regional scale is of great importance for the quantification of climate change. This research investigates the changes in precipitation and surface air temperature indices in the seven irrigation zones of Punjab Province during the last 50 years; this province is a very important region in Pakistan in terms of agriculture and irrigated farming. The reliability of the data was examined using double mass curve and autocorrelation analysis. The magnitude and significance of the precipitation and temperature were visualized by various statistical methods. The stations’ trends were spatially distributed to better understand climatic variability across the elevation gradient of the study region. The results showed a significant warming trend in annual Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tmean (mean temperature) in different irrigation zones. However, Tmax (maximum temperature) had insignificant variations except in the high elevation Thal zone. Moreover, the rate of Tmin increased faster than that of Tmax, resulting in a reduction in the diurnal temperature range (DTR). On a seasonal scale, warming was more pronounced during spring, followed by that in winter and autumn. However, the summer season exhibited insignificant negative trends in most of the zones and gauges, except in the higher-altitude Thal zone. Overall, Bahawalpur and Faisalabad are the zones most vulnerable to warming annually and in the spring, respectively. Furthermore, the elevation-dependent trend (EDT) indicated larger increments in Tmax for higher-elevation (above 500 m a.s.l.) stations, compared to the lower-elevation ones, on both annual and seasonal scales. In contrast, the Tmin showed opposite trends at higher- and lower-elevation stations, while a moderate increase was witnessed in Tmean trends from lower to higher altitude over the study region. An increasing trend in DTR was observed at higher elevation, while a decreasing trend was noticed at the lower-elevation stations. The analysis of precipitation data indicated wide variability over the entire region during the study period. Most previous studies reported no change or a decreasing trend in precipitation in this region. Conversely, our findings indicated the cumulative increase in annual and autumn precipitation amounts at zonal and regional level. However, EDT analysis identified the decrease in precipitation amounts at higher elevation (above 1000 m a.s.l.) and increase at the lower-elevation stations. Overall, our findings revealed unprecedented evidence of regional climate change from the perspectives of seasonal warming and variations in precipitation and temperature extremes (Tmax and Tmin) particularly at higher-elevation sites, resulting in a variability of the DTR, which could have a significant influence on water resources and on the phenology of vegetation and crops at zonal and station level in Punjab.

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Section: Mann-kendall Test (Mk)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mann-kendall Test (Mk)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature in Punjab, Pakistan

Nawaz

Chen

et al. 2019

Water

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“…Climate data from the CMADS can be downloaded from the official CMADS website (http://www.cmads.org). The non-parameter Mann-Kendall (MK) test has been widely applied to identify the monotonic tendency and significance in hydro-meteorological time series such as those of precipitation, streamflow, and temperature [45,56,57]. The MK test statistic S is calculated as:…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Engineering measures such as reservoir construction and diversion of dams may affect high flow by reducing overland flow and peak streamflow [43]. The annual streamflow of Huangfuchuan basin, which is located in the same climate zone of Hailiutu River basin, has decreased significantly because the increased of construction of check dams [10,44,45]. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impacts of climate variability/land use change and other factors such as the increase of ground water extraction, and construction of reservoirs and diversion dams on the streamflow in the Hailiutu River basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Change on Streamflow in the Hailiutu River Basin

Guang-hua

Guan

Zhang

et al. 2018

Water

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Abstract:The Hailiutu River basin is a typical semi-arid wind sandy grass shoal watershed in northwest China. Climate and land use have changed significantly during the period 1970-2014. These changes are expected to impact hydrological processes in the basin. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test and sequential t-test analysis of the regime shift method were used to detect the trend and shifts of the hydrometeorological time series. Based on the analyzed results, seven scenarios were developed by combining different land use and/or climate situations. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to analyze the impacts of climate variability and land use change on the values of the hydrological components. The China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS) was applied to enhance the spatial expressiveness of precipitation data in the study area during the period 2008-2014. Rather than solely using observed precipitation or CMADS precipitation, the precipitation values of CMADS and the observed precipitation values were combined to drive the SWAT model for better simulation results. From the trend analysis, the annual streamflow and wind speed showed a significant downward trend. No significant trend was found for the annual precipitation series; however, the temperature series showed upward trends. With the change point analysis, the whole study period was divided into three sub-periods (1970-1985, 1986-2000, and 2001-2014). The annual precipitation, mean wind speed, and average temperature values were 316 mm, 2.62 m/s, and 7.9 • C, respectively, for the sub-period [1970][1971][1972][1973][1974][1975][1976][1977][1978][1979][1980][1981][1982][1983][1984][1985] 272 were the increased area of shrub and grass land and decreased area of sandy land. In the simulation it was shown that these changes caused the mean annual streamflow to decrease by 0.23 mm/year and 0.68 mm/year during the periods 1986-2000 and 2001-2014, respectively. Thus, the impact of climate variability on the streamflow was more profound than that of land use change. Under the impact of coupled climate variability and land use change, the mean annual streamflow decreased by 2.45 mm/year during the period 1986-2000, and the contribution of this variation to the decrease in observed streamflow was 27.8%. For the period 2001-2014, the combined climate variability and land use change resulted in an increase of 0.84 mm/year in annual streamflow. The results obtained in this study could provide guidance for water resource management and planning in the Erdos plateau.

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“…e MK test was applied to analyze the changes in precipitation in the study area. e MK test will not be discussed here, as its detailed description can be found in many studies [29,30]. Mann-Kendall Z statistics greater than 1.96 indicated a significant increasing trend at the significance level of P � 0.05, while a Z statistic less than −1.96 indicated a significant decreasing trend.…”

Section: Mann-kendall Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Different Classes of Precipitation and the Impacts on Sediment Yield in the Hekouzhen-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Basin, China

Dang

Liu²,

et al. 2018

Advances in Meteorology

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The sediment yield of the Yellow River Basin has obviously decreased since the 1980s, and the impacts of precipitation on sediment yield changes have become increasingly important with the global climate change. The spatial and temporal variations in annual precipitation and different classes of precipitation in the Hekouzhen-Longmen region (HLR) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin were investigated using data collected from 301 rainfall stations from 1966 to 2016. The impacts of precipitation variation on sediment yield were evaluated, and the hydrological modeling method was used to quantitatively assess the attribution of precipitation and other factors to sediment yield changes in the HLR. The results show that the annual precipitation and P10 increased from the northwest to the southeast of the HLR, suggesting it was drier in the northwest region of the HLR. P25 and P50 were mainly concentrated in the northwestern and southwestern parts of the HLR, reflecting that heavy rain was more likely to occur in these regions of the HLR. All of the annual precipitation and different classes of precipitation had no significant changing trends from 1966 to 2016, and the relationship between rainfall and sediment yield obviously changed in 2006. Compared with the average annual mean values from 1966 to 2016, both the annual precipitation and the different classes of precipitation were higher in the HLR during 2007–2016. The sediment yield decrease during 1990–1999 was mainly influenced by precipitation, while other factors were the main driving factor for the sediment yield decrease in the periods of 1980–1989, 2000–2009, and 2010–2016, and other factors have become the dominant driving factors of the sediment yield change in the HLR since 2000.

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Investigating Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Huangfuchuan Basin with Wavelet Analysis and the Mann-Kendall Test

Cited by 66 publications

References 66 publications

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature in Punjab, Pakistan

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature in Punjab, Pakistan

The Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Change on Streamflow in the Hailiutu River Basin

Changes in Different Classes of Precipitation and the Impacts on Sediment Yield in the Hekouzhen-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Basin, China

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