Investigating the international prices of wheat and rice

Abstract

This paper investigates the international quarterly prices of wheat and rice from 1983(1) to 2012(4). The empirical analysis takes place with the structural time series methodology which decomposes the price series into their trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. The empirical results indicate that wheat prices present cyclical behavior while rice prices except for cyclicality are mainly governed by the irregular component. The results strain the importance of treating wheat and rice like two distinct commodities that require country specific and commodity specific policy measures. Finally, the impact of the shrinking Chinese grain stocks after 2002 is proposed as an important factor that resulted in the 2008 price spike.

Survey on Quality of Foodgrains Procured from Farmers: A Case Study in Punjab

“…The organic impurities in the form of dockage make the grain more susceptible to stored grain insects and fungal attack 23 . Shrunken grains due to their higher rate of respiration provide favourable conditions for deteriorative changes by insects, microorganisms and enzymatic reactions and also affect the percentage of head rice yield during milling process 31,32 . Dirt/dockage present in the foodgrains also effect the penetration power of the fumigants.…”

Greek milk price decomposition

“…Another advantage is the handling of missing data or the incorporation of two data sources of different periodicity (e.g., monthly, quarterly). A large model is easier created and handled; a forecast is easily produced due to the nature of the model (Kalman filter); and explanatory variables are easily incorporated into the model (Durbin and Koopman, 2012;Rezitis et al, 2015).…”

“…The damping factor (see later explanation) of the cycles was strong. Rezitis et al (2015) examined the quarterly nominal price of wheat and rice from January of 1983 to April of 2012 with a SSM. Wheat price variation is explained mostly from two cycles, the long cycle being the most important.…”

Price volatility and risk management: The case of rice in the EU

“…Regarding the second point, Headey (2011) and Rezitis et al (2015) underline the link between the price volatility of wheat and that of rice. When the price of wheat in the international market is high, importing countries resort to a possible substitution between wheat and rice.…”

“…When the price of wheat in the international market is high, importing countries resort to a possible substitution between wheat and rice. This leads to an increasing demand for rice instead of wheat, which can influence the international price level (Headey 2011;Rezitis et al, 2015).…”