Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna river basin under present and future scenarios

Chanapathi, Tirupathi; Thatikonda, Shashidhar

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137736

Cited by 79 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…The greenhouse gas emission level in the RCP4.5 scenario is more in line with the trend of China's future economic development, while the RCP8.5 represents a high-risk future scenario [41]. Both scenarios are widely used in studies of the impact of future climate change on ecosystem services [15,28,42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Wang

Qiao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Wang

Qiao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…From the analysis, it is observed that the GCM uncertainty in precipitation is more (except near-century), the uncertainty in stream ow is also more. Similarly, studies on assessing the impact of climate change on watershed regions of Krishna basin (Ghataprabha is the sub-basin of Krishna basin), have also found precipitation to be key determinants (Chanapathi and Thatikonda, 2020;Uday Kumar and Jayakumar, 2020;Chanapathi et al, 2018). Downscaling the climate variables as an output from the GCMs under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using statistical downscaling for this work.…”

Section: Gcm Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Precipitation over the Ghataprabha Sub-Basin, India under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Reddy

Patil

Laddimath

2021

Preprint

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The present study has been taken up to quantify the possible impacts of the climate change on the climate variables using the outputs of global climate models datasets over the Ghataprabha Sub-basin. The climate variables (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature) data from the five selected global climate model dataset were downscaled using change factor method under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios for future periods near-century (2010-2039), mid-century (2040-2069), and end-century (2070-2099). The downscaled results of all the five models were ensembled using multi-model ensembling method to reduce the uncertainty in the projected results and the percentage change in the climate variables were shown with respect to the historical/baseline period (1961-1990) using spatial plots and histograms. The future projected results shows that percentage change in the annual mean precipitation with respect to the historical (1961-1990), is decreasing for most of the grids in the study area during the near-century while during mid and end centuries it shows an increasing trend across all the four RCP scenarios. The average daily minimum and maximum temperature with respect to the historical (1961-1990) values were showing an increasing trend in the study area during the near, mid, and end centuries across all the four RCP scenarios. Further, study also analysed the percentage change in 100-year return level over the study area.

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“…The importance of various hydrological stressors depends on the local climatic, geographic and hydrological conditions, and the respective future trajectories (e.g., Davis et al, 2015;Yang et al, 2017;Chanapathi and Thatikonda, 2020). Hydrological projections for LCC and climate scenarios show opposite directions in the Puelo River Basin.…”

Section: Synergistic Hydrological Effects Between Climate and Lccmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Anthropogenic alterations of the natural streamflow regime by way of LCCs make isolating the impacts of climate change on hydrology a daunting task (Yang et al, 2017;Chanapathi and Thatikonda, 2020). In Chile the hydrological impacts of LCCs have been evaluated mainly in south-central Chile (< 41 • S; Stehr et al, 2010;Aguayo et al, 2016;Martínez-Retureta et al, 2020;Barría et al, 2021;Galleguillos et al, 2021) and not in tributary basins to the coastal system of northwestern Patagonia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

et al. 2021

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Freshwater inputs strongly influence oceanographic conditions in coastal systems of northwestern Patagonia (41–45°S). Nevertheless, the influence of freshwater on these systems has weakened in recent decades due to a marked decrease in precipitation. Here we evaluate potential influences of climate and land cover trends on the Puelo River (640 m3s–1), the main source of freshwater input of the Reloncaví Fjord (41.5°S). Water quality was analyzed along the Puelo River basin (six sampling points) and at the discharge site in the Reloncaví Fjord (1, 8, and 25 m depth), through six field campaigns carried out under contrasting streamflow scenarios. We also used several indicators of hydrological alteration, and cross-wavelet transform and coherence analyses to evaluate the association between the Puelo River streamflow and precipitation (1950–2019). Lastly, using the WEAP hydrological model, land cover maps (2001–2016) and burned area reconstructions (1985–2019), we simulated future land cover impacts (2030) on the hydrological processes of the Puelo River. Total Nitrogen and total phosphorus, dissolved carbon, and dissolved iron concentrations measured in the river were 3–15 times lower than those in the fjord. Multivariate analyses showed that streamflow drives the carbon composition in the river. High streamflow conditions contribute with humic and colored materials, while low streamflow conditions corresponded to higher arrival of protein-like materials from the basin. The Puelo River streamflow showed significant trends in magnitude (lower streamflow in summer and autumn), duration (minimum annual streamflow), timing (more floods in spring), and frequency (fewer prolonged floods). The land cover change (LCC) analysis indicated that more than 90% of the basin area maintained its land cover, and that the main changes were attributed to recent large wildfires. Considering these land cover trends, the hydrological simulations project a slight increase in the Puelo River streamflow mainly due to a decrease in evapotranspiration. According to previous simulations, these projections present a direction opposite to the trends forced by climate change. The combined effect of reduction in freshwater input to fiords and potential decline in water quality highlights the need for more robust data and robust analysis of the influence of climate and LCC on this river-fjord complex of northwestern Patagonia.

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Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna river basin under present and future scenarios

Cited by 79 publications

References 54 publications

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Precipitation over the Ghataprabha Sub-Basin, India under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Climate and Land Cover Trends Affecting Freshwater Inputs to a Fjord in Northwestern Patagonia

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