Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

Mairesse, Aurélien; Goosse, Hugues; Mathiot, Pierre; Wanner, Heinz; Dubinkina, Svetlana

doi:10.5194/cp-9-2741-2013

Cited by 26 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…The outcomes of the approach led to distributions with larger overlaps with the proxy-based reconstruction. The method has also been used by Mairesse et al (2013) to reconstruct the climate of the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On-line and off-line data assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study

2015

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Abstract. Different ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) approaches for palaeoclimate reconstructions have been recently undertaken, but no systematic comparison among them has been attempted. We compare an off-line and an online ensemble-based method, with the testing period being the 17th century, which led into the Maunder Minimum. We use a low-resolution version of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to assimilate the Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k continental temperature reconstructions. In the off-line approach, the ensemble for the entire simulation period is generated first and then the ensemble is used in combination with the empirical information to produce the analysis. In contrast, in the on-line approach, the ensembles are generated sequentially for sub-periods based on the analysis of previous sub-periods. Both schemes perform better than the simulations without DA. The on-line method would be expected to perform better if the assimilation led to states of the slow components of the climate system that are close to reality and the system had sufficient memory to propagate this information forward in time. In our comparison, which is based on analysing correlations and differences between the analysis and the proxy-based reconstructions, we find similar skill for both methods on the continental and hemispheric scales. This indicates either a lack of control of the slow components in our setup or a lack of skill in the information propagation on decadal timescales. Additional experiments are however needed to check whether the conclusions reached in this particular setup are valid in other cases. Although the performance of the two schemes is similar and the on-line method is more difficult to implement, the temporal consistency of the analysis in the on-line method makes it in general preferable.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On-line and off-line data assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study

2015

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“…This seasonally differing temperature pattern extends over large parts of the polar regions 23 and is therefore also relevant for other Arctic and NH reconstructions 2,3 . The opposite summer and winter temperature changes in both proxy data and models [6][7][8] can be explained by seasonally different orbital forcing.…”

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confidence: 99%

Long-term winter warming trend in the Siberian Arctic during the mid- to late Holocene

et al. 2015

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Relative to the past 2,000 years 1,2 , the Arctic region has warmed significantly over the past few decades. However, the evolution of Arctic temperatures during the rest of the Holocene is less clear. Proxy reconstructions, suggest a longterm cooling trend throughout the mid-to late Holocene 3-5 , whereas climate model simulations show only minor changes or even warming [6][7][8] . Here we present a record of the oxygen isotope composition of permafrost ice wedges from the Lena River Delta in the Siberian Arctic. The isotope values, which reflect winter season temperatures, became progressively more enriched over the past 7,000 years, reaching unprecedented levels in the past five decades. This warming trend during the mid-to late Holocene is in opposition to the cooling seen in other proxy records 3,5,9. However, most of these existing proxy records are biased towards summer temperatures. We argue that the opposing trends are related to the seasonally di erent orbital forcing over this interval. Furthermore, our reconstructed trend as well as the recent maximum are consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing and climate model simulations, thus reconciling di ering estimates of Arctic and northern high-latitude temperature evolution during the Holocene.

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“…Goosse et al, 2012;Mathiot et al, 2013;Mairesse et al, 2013). First, an ensemble of 96 simulations (called particles) is initialized from a slightly different sea surface temperature for each particle, allowing different time developments.…”

Section: Data Assimilation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The changes in greenhouse gas concentration are taken from Flückiger et al (2002) for LOVECLIM simulations, which are slightly different from the ones used in the framework of the CMIP5/PMIP3 (http://pmip3.lsce.ipsl.fr/). As in Mathiot et al (2013) and Mairesse et al (2013), LOVE-CLIM simulations also consider slight changes in ice sheet topography and surface albedo, following the reconstruction of Peltier (2004), as well as in freshwater fluxes from Antarctic ice sheet melting according to the results of Pollard and DeConto (2009). This represents a small difference as compared to the CMIP5/PMIP3 protocol, as the latter prescribes present-day ice sheet topography and no change in freshwater fluxes at 6 ka with respect to the present.…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This prevents estimating explicitly the models' skills as done, for instance, in Hargreaves et al (2013) and in Mairesse et al (2013) for temperature data. The main robust conclusion is that models and reconstructions agree that the changes between the MH and the PI period annual mean sea ice concentration are relatively weak.…”

Section: S T R a It C H U K C H I S E A S S S D D D D D D D D E N M Amentioning

confidence: 99%

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Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration

et al. 2014

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Abstract.The consistency between new quantitative reconstructions of Arctic sea ice concentration based on dinocyst assemblages and the results of climate models has been investigated for the mid-Holocene. The response of the models mainly follows the increase in summer insolation, modulated to a limited extent by changes in atmospheric circulation. This leads to differences between regions in the models that are smaller than in the reconstruction. It is, however, impossible to precisely assess the models' skills because the sea ice concentration changes at the mid-Holocene are small in both the reconstructions and the models and of the same order of magnitude as the reconstruction uncertainty. Performing simulations with data assimilation using the model LOVECLIM amplifies the regional differences and improves the modeldata agreement as expected. This is mainly achieved through a reduction of the southward winds in the Barents Sea and an increase in the westerly winds in the Canadian Basin, inducing an increase in the ice concentration in the Barents and Chukchi seas. This underlines the potential role of atmospheric circulation in explaining the reconstructed changes during the Holocene.

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Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

Cited by 26 publications

References 85 publications

On-line and off-line data assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study

On-line and off-line data assimilation in palaeoclimatology: a case study

Long-term winter warming trend in the Siberian Arctic during the mid- to late Holocene

Model–data comparison and data assimilation of mid-Holocene Arctic sea ice concentration

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