Abstract. This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a
catchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible to
variations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. The
assessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from five
hydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southern
Sardinia (Italy). The examined models – CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil
and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and
Integration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator
(tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM) – are all distributed
hydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrain
features and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. After
calibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected,
downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate models
in a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) period under a single
emission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of the
hydrologic models influence the different components of the catchment
response. Three water availability response variables – discharge, soil
water content, and actual evapotranspiration – are analyzed. Simulation
results from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasing
mean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actual
evapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the five
models due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences,
the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation
and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong
support to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region of
the Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this study
allows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models and
between the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate and
hydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using a
recently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient with
a factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. The
results from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between the
hydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateral
subsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment of
vegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM).