Investigating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and society relationships

Abstract

Throughout at least the past several centuries, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has played a significant role in human response to climate. Over time, increased attention on ENSO has led to a better understanding of both the physical mechanisms, and the environmental and societal consequences of the phenomenon. The prospects for seasonal climate forecasting emerged from ENSO studies, and were first pursued in ENSO studies. In this paper, we review ENSO's impact on society, specifically with regard to agriculture, water, and health; we also explore the extent to which ENSO-related forecasts are used to inform decision making in these sectors. We find that there are significant differences in the uptake of forecasts across sectors, with the highest use in agriculture, intermediate use in water resources management, and the lowest in health. Forecast use is low in areas where ENSO linkages to climate are weak, but the strength of this linkage alone does not guarantee use. Moreover, the differential use of ENSO forecasts by sector shows the critical role of institutions that work at the boundary between science and society. In a long-term iterative process requiring continual maintenance, these organizations serve to enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of forecasts and related climate services.

Observed (1970–1999) climate variability in Central America using a high-resolution meteorological dataset with implication to climate change studies

“…The contributions of natural climatic causes to the total P variance in the inter-annual, decadal and trend components were estimated in 84 %, 14 % and 2 % in Central America respectively (Hidalgo León et al 2015). Understanding climate variability through time is key as adapting to climate variability is a great step forward in the adaptation to climate change (Zebiak et al 2014). Climate variability in the form of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), for example, impacts many society's aspects such as agriculture and food security, water resources, health, disaster occurrences, and numerous other means (Zebiak et al 2014).…”

“…Understanding climate variability through time is key as adapting to climate variability is a great step forward in the adaptation to climate change (Zebiak et al 2014). Climate variability in the form of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), for example, impacts many society's aspects such as agriculture and food security, water resources, health, disaster occurrences, and numerous other means (Zebiak et al 2014).…”

Coherent Tropical Indo-Pacific Interannual Climate Variability

“…Because of its great influence around the globe, early prediction of strong El Niño and La Niña events can be of great value to take measures to reduce damage (Zebiak et al 2015).…”

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

“…Some research findings have indicated the usefulness of weather forecasts for reducing vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture to drought, flooding and extremely low or high temperature [22][23][24][25][26]. Initiatives to promote access of African farmers to weather forecasts include formation of several regional Climate Outlook Forums (COFs) in the late 1990s [27][28][29][30]. Similarly, growing need of weather forecasts has triggered establishment of Global Framework for Climate Services [31] by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).…”