Investigating climate tipping points under various emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios with a stochastic climate model

Mendez, Alexander; Farazmand, Mohammad

doi:10.1098/rspa.2021.0697

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…1 PA, it is crucial whether emissions will be reduced immediately or whether they will continue to rise for a few more years and be reduced thereafter [15] (pp. 4-80) [24,39,50,51]. As mentioned earlier, the (non-) integration of overshoots plays another important role.…”

Section: Materials and Methods: Budgets Reduction Pathways Scenarios-...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…But even this increase is still not the same as the clear obligation towards the target of the Paris Agreement especially since the IPCC's underlying assumptions also tend to be generous as seen [7,20]. Rather, net-zero emissions must be achieved promptly in no more than two decades to drastically reduce the risk of reaching critical tipping points such as further melting of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets and coral bleaching [6,7,51,97].…”

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confidence: 99%

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The Paris Target, Human Rights, and IPCC Weaknesses: Legal Arguments in Favour of Smaller Carbon Budgets

Ekardt

Bärenwaldt²,

Heyl³

2022

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The Paris Climate Agreement (PA) provides an overall target which limits global warming to “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels” and “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels” (Art. 2 para. 1 PA). This article assesses the extent to which new insights can be derived from recent IPCC reports for the interpretation of Art. 2 para. 1 PA from a legal perspective. To this end, the article analyses the contributions of Working Groups I and III of the sixth assessment report. Methodologically, we compare the findings with previously published IPCC reports, namely the 1.5 °C report and the fifth assessment report. A legal interpretation of the Paris Agreement and of core concepts of human rights follows. Several empirical indications show that current global greenhouse gas budget calculations are quite generous. We provide five empirical arguments that clearly point in that direction. These empirical arguments, combined with legal arguments, demonstrate that the budgets must be smaller than those estimated by the IPCC. The legal arguments are based on Art. 2 of the Paris Agreement, as well as on human rights and the precautionary principle. These norms contain an obligation to minimise the risk of significant damage, i.e., to take rapid and drastic climate protection measures. This implies: 1.5 °C is the legally binding temperature target; adherence requires a very high probability of achieving the target; temperature overshoot and geoengineering tend to be prohibited, and budget calculations must be based on sceptical factual assumptions. These findings have also been confirmed by recent rulings of supreme courts, such as the ground-breaking climate decision of the German Federal Constitutional Court. The Paris Agreement and human rights underline a legally binding obligation for smaller global greenhouse gas budgets as those estimated in the greenhouse gas budgets of the IPCC—even compared to the 83 percent scenario in the latest assessment. Thua, climate policy will have to raise its ambitions towards zero fossil fuels and a drastic reduction of livestock farming in times of the Ukraine war.

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Section: Materials and Methods: Budgets Reduction Pathways Scenarios-...mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Paris Target, Human Rights, and IPCC Weaknesses: Legal Arguments in Favour of Smaller Carbon Budgets

Ekardt

Bärenwaldt²,

Heyl³

2022

Environments

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“…An increasingly relevant question will then be to what degree any reductions will be detectable in terms of observed climate variables and near-term warming (McKenna et al 2020;B. H. Samset et al 2022) and, potentially, climate impacts themselves (Mendez and Farazmand 2021;Ciavarella, Stott, and Lowe 2017). These questions are of relevance for the justification of climate policy, both globally and at the country level, and for planning for potential near-term impacts and for assessments of liability for climate damages.…”

Section: Verification Of Emissions Reductionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sanderson

2024

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“…In such cases, it is possible to identify the smallest perturbation in the wind that is required to produce the transition for a single well-mixed space [32,33] and for the stratified environment created by a point source of buoyancy [34]. Systems subjected to random forces therefore have the propensity to flip between metastable equilibria [35][36][37], as demonstrated by the classical van der Pol oscillator subjected to white noise [38,39] and 'tipping points' in climate models [40].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic models of ventilation driven by opposing wind and buoyancy

Andrian

Craske

2023

Proc. R. Soc. A.

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Stochastic versions of a classical model for natural ventilation are proposed and investigated to demonstrate the effect of random fluctuations on stability and predictability. In a stochastic context, the well-known deterministic result that ventilation driven by the competing effects of buoyancy and wind admits multiple steady states can be misleading. With fluctuations in the buoyancy exchanged with an external environment modelled as a Wiener process, such systems tend to reside in the vicinity of global minima of their potential, rather than states associated with metastable equilibria. For a heated space with a leeward low-level and windward high-level opening, sustained buoyancy-driven flow opposing the wind direction is unlikely for wind strengths exceeding a statistically critical value, which is slightly larger than the critical value of the wind strength at which bifurcation in the deterministic system occurs. When fluctuations in the applied wind strength are modelled as an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the topology of the system’s potential is effectively modified due to the nonlinear role that wind strength has in the equation for buoyancy conservation. Consequently, large fluctuations in the wind of sufficient duration rule out the possibility of sustained ventilation opposing the wind direction at large base wind strengths.

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Investigating climate tipping points under various emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios with a stochastic climate model

Abstract: We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO 2 concentration through the green-house effect. We model the CO 2 conce… Show more

Cited by 5 publications

References 55 publications

The Paris Target, Human Rights, and IPCC Weaknesses: Legal Arguments in Favour of Smaller Carbon Budgets

The Paris Target, Human Rights, and IPCC Weaknesses: Legal Arguments in Favour of Smaller Carbon Budgets

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Stochastic models of ventilation driven by opposing wind and buoyancy

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