Inverse flood risk modelling under changing climatic conditions

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Simonović́, Slobodan P.

doi:10.1002/hyp.6225

Cited by 48 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…", the ATP approach aims at answering "how much climate change and sea level rise can the current strategy cope with?". In hydrology, Cunderlik and Simonovic (2007) developed an inverse-type approach aiming at identifying the meteorological conditions leading to critical hydrological exposures. However, Cunderlik and Simonovic (2007) consider fewer physical dimensions in their model than in coastal systems because they only included meteorological precipitations as forcing conditions.…”

Section: Toward the Development Of Inverse Methods For Flooding Risk mentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an inverse method for coastal risk management

Idier

Rohmer

Bulteau

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Recent flooding events, like Katrina (USA, 2005) or Xynthia (France, 2010), illustrate the complexity of coastal systems and the limits of traditional flood risk analysis. Among other questions, these events raised issues such as: "how to choose flooding scenarios for risk management purposes?", "how to make a society more aware and prepared for such events?" and "which level of risk is acceptable to a population?". The present paper aims at developing an inverse approach that could seek to address these three issues. The main idea of the proposed method is the inversion of the usual risk assessment steps: starting from the maximum acceptable hazard level (defined by stakeholders as the one leading to the maximum tolerable consequences) to finally obtain the return period of this threshold. Such an "inverse" approach would allow for the identification of all the offshore forcing conditions (and their occurrence probability) inducing a threat for critical assets of the territory, such information being of great importance for coastal risk management. This paper presents the first stage in developing such a procedure. It focuses on estimation (through inversion of the flooding model) of the offshore conditions leading to the acceptable hazard level, estimation of the return period of the associated combinations, and thus of the maximum acceptable hazard level. A first application for a simplified case study (based on real data), located on the French Mediterranean coast, is presented, assuming a maximum acceptable hazard level. Even if only one part of the full inverse method has been developed, we demonstrate how the inverse method can be useful in (1) estimating the probability of exceeding the maximum inundation height for identified critical assets, (2) providing critical offshore conditions for flooding in early warning systems, and (3) raising awareness of stakeholders and eventually enhance preparedness for future flooding events by allowing them to assess risk to their territory. The next challenge is to develop a framework to properly identify the acceptable hazard level, as an input to the present inverse approach.

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Section: Toward the Development Of Inverse Methods For Flooding Risk mentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an inverse method for coastal risk management

Idier

Rohmer

Bulteau

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…As a final research output of the project, informal scientific discussions highlighted the importance of thresholds for stakeholders. This led to the idea of extending the threshold-based modelling approach (Axis 2), to a risk threshold-based approach (Cunderlink & Simonovic 2007). This approach uses a level of hazard or damage considered as acceptable by society (input), and provides the associated return period (output).…”

Section: Discussion: Lessons and Outlooksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of sandy coasts to climate variability

Idier¹,

Castelle²,

Poumadère³

et al. 2013

Clim. Res.

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The main objective of the VULSACO (VULnerability of SAndy COasts to climate change and anthropic pressure) project was to investigate present day and potential future vulnerability of sandy coasts at the 2030 horizon, i.e. on a time scale related to climate variability. The method, based on a multidisciplinary approach bringing together geologists, geographers, physicists, social psychologists, engineers and stakeholders, was structured around 4 axes: field data analysis; numerical modelling; analysis of governance and stakeholder perceptions; and development of vulnerability indexes. This approach was designed to investigate vulnerability at a local scale and was applied to 4 contrasting beaches located in France: Sète Lido (Mediterranean Sea), Truc Vert and La Tresson beaches (Atlantic Ocean), and Dewulf (English Channel). The results focus on decadal and multi-annual beach trends at the Truc Vert beach site. There is almost no trend in beach volume at Truc Vert beach, although there is a variation in this parameter on a cycle of 2 to 3 yr, with variations related to wave energy and probably to indexes of climate variability. Numerical modelling identified the sensitivity of beach responses to changes in wave height and direction, especially in terms of subtidal morphology and the potential development of shoreline instability. Together with the observed offshore wave angle at the Biscay Buoy, these model results suggest that a potential change in wave angle due to climate variability could significantly modify the bars' morphology. The combination of data analysis and numerical modelling contributed to the development of vulnerability indexes designed for sandy coasts, which take into account climate-dependant variables such as waves. This allowed the differentiation of the sites in terms of vulnerability to erosion: Sète Lido and Truc Vert beach were the most and least vulnerable sites, respectively. These indexes help in identifying the dominant components of beach vulnerability, and provide potential for the study of how anthropogenic factors affect vulnerability. The study of stakeholder perceptions and decision-making with regard to climate-related risk also highlighted potential anthropogenic effects on beach vulnerability, and identified possible site-specific outcomes.

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“…Such information is of primary importance either to constrain early warning systems based on hydrometeorological forecast or observations, or to contribute to the return period calculation of the hazard level at the coast. Besides, it can eventually support the implementation of innovative "inverse" risk assessment methodology as recently proposed for fluvial inundation (Cunderlink and Simonovic, 2007) or for coastal flooding (Idier et al, 2010).…”

Section: Concluding Remarks and Further Workmentioning

confidence: 98%

A meta-modelling strategy to identify the critical offshore conditions for coastal flooding

Rohmer¹,

Idier²

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.High water level at the coast may be the result of different combinations of offshore hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. wave characteristics, offshore water level, etc.). Providing the contour of the "critical" set of offshore conditions leading to high water level is of primary importance either to constrain early warning networks based on hydrometeorological forecast or observations, or for the assessment of the coastal flood hazard return period. The challenge arises from the use of computationally intensive simulators, which prevent the application of a grid approach consisting in extracting the contour through the systematic evaluation of the simulator on a fine design grid defined in the offshore conditions domain. To overcome such a computational difficulty, we propose a strategy based on the kriging meta-modelling technique combined with an adaptive sampling procedure aiming at improving the local accuracy in the regions of the offshore conditions that contribute the most to the estimate of the targeted contour. This methodology is applied to two cases using an idealized site on the Mediterranean coast (southern France): (1) a two-dimensional case to ease the visual analysis and aiming at identifying the combination of offshore water level and of significant wave height; (2) a more complex case aiming at identifying four offshore conditions (offshore water level and offshore wave characteristics: height, direction and period). By using a simulator of moderate computation time cost (a few tens of minutes), the targeted contour can be estimated using a cluster composed of a moderate number of computer units. This reference contour is then compared with the results of the metamodel-based strategy. In both cases, we show that the critical offshore conditions can be estimated with a good level of accuracy using a very limited number (of a few tens) of computationally intensive hydrodynamic simulations.

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Inverse flood risk modelling under changing climatic conditions

Cited by 48 publications

References 78 publications

Development of an inverse method for coastal risk management

Development of an inverse method for coastal risk management

Vulnerability of sandy coasts to climate variability

A meta-modelling strategy to identify the critical offshore conditions for coastal flooding

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