Inventory of glacial lakes and identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali river basins of Nepal, the Tibet Autonomous Region of China, and India

Bajracharya, Samjwal Ratna; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash; Shrestha, Finu; Sherpa, Tenzing Chogyal; Wagle, Nisha; Shrestha, A. B.

doi:10.53055/icimod.773

Cited by 12 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…Because of climate change, many glacier lakes are at risk of erupting. The latest study carried out by ICIMOD, 2020 shows there are 47 such glacial lakes in Nepal (Bajracharya et al, 2020). The possibility of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been increasing in the mountainous areas of Nepal.…”

Section: Migration and Resettlementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the resilience of food production systems for food and nutritional security under climate change in Nepal

Neupane

Paudel²,

Sapkota³

et al. 2022

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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BackgroundClimate change in Nepal has posed a considerable challenge to agricultural productivity and has threatened food and nutritional security at multiple levels. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on national food production and food and nutritional security as well as document issue-based prioritized adaptation options for a resilient food production system.MethodsThis study considers temperature, precipitation, and their anomalies as the key factors affecting food production in Nepal. Nationwide precipitation trends along with their association with the annual production of major cereal crops in Nepal were assessed using data from the last three decades (1990–2018). The annual productions of the major cereal crops were summed and normalized to calculate the production index scores in the districts. Scores were plotted and visualized into maps using the Geographical Information System. In three ecological regions, the distribution of flood and extreme rainfall events and cases of malnutrition from 2005 to 2018 were plotted. The effects of climate change and highest priority adaptation options at the district level were documented through a review of national policies and literature studies and qualitative research based on Focus Group Discussions (FGDs).ResultsBetween 1990 and 2018, the overall average production of major cereal crops in Nepal was increased by around 2,245 MT annually. In the district level index analysis, the highest production score was found for Jhapa and Morang while the lowest production score was found for Humla. Cases of malnutrition in some districts coincided with flood and heavy rainfall events, indicating that climate change and extreme climatic events have a role to play in food production and security. Growing drought-tolerant crops, changes in crop cycle, riverbed farming practices, developing short-term strategies, such as contingency crop planning, changing planting dates, planting short duration varieties, schemes evacuation, and long-term strategies, such as encouraging out-migration of population to safer locations, resettlement programs with transformative livelihood options, and sustainable agricultural practices were found to be key prioritized adaptation measures for a resilient food production system.ConclusionIn Nepal, climate change and the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events adversely affect the food production system, which has become a serious threat to food and nutritional security. The implementation of evidence-based practices to build a resilient food system specific to climate-vulnerable hotspots at the district and local levels is the nation's current need.

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Section: Migration and Resettlementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the resilience of food production systems for food and nutritional security under climate change in Nepal

Neupane

Paudel²,

Sapkota³

et al. 2022

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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“…Although the exact current morphological and hydrological situation for most of the glacial lakes in HMA is unknown, a large number of studies exist that focus on the currently most dangerous lakes in this region, for example Merzbacher Lake (Shangguan et al, 2017), Lower Barun Lake (Sattar et al, 2021), Imja Tsho (Lala et al, 2018) as well as Tsho Rolpa or Thulagi (Bajracharya et al, 2020). With our results, it is possible to provide an outlook into a potential future for these dangerous lakes depending on different SSP scenarios.…”

Section: Case Examplesmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…At the Lower Barun glacial lake in Nepal, risk mitigation measures are planned following the examples at Tsho Rolpa and Imja Lake (Bajracharya et al, 2020). For this fast-growing and very deep lake, our results show that even under SSP126 the glacial lake could grow by about 50% by mid-century, increasing its area by 1 km 2 and its volume by 0.1 km 3 (Figure 11).…”

Section: Case Examplesmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…The Tsho Rolpa in the Tama River basin in Nepal is one of the most dangerous glacial lakes in HMA, since, as of 2020, over 140,000 people would be affected in the event of a GLOF (Bajracharya et al, 2020). Although the water level was lowered in 2000, the hazard potential remains high due to a steep and thin moraine and rapid glacier retreat.…”

Section: Case Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia

2022

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In High Mountain Asia (HMA), rising temperatures and retreating glaciers are leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones. The sudden release of water from such lakes can lead to devastating glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) threatening people and infrastructure for many kilometers downstream. Therefore, information on future glacial lakes, e.g., their location, area and volume as well as the timing of their development, is vital for sustainable development of settlements and infrastructures. In this study, we present comprehensive estimates for future glacial lake development in HMA with unprecedented temporal resolution. We rely on an ensemble of fifteen global climate models using the newest CMIP6 data and employ a set of four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. With the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we use a modeling framework that explicitly simulates glacier dynamics in order to model glacier change until 2100 and estimate the formation period for each of the 2,700 largest future glacial lakes (>0.1 km2) in HMA. We estimate the glacial lake area in the entire region to grow by 474 ± 121 km2 for SSP126 and 833 ± 148 km2 for SSP585. Following recent estimates of currently existing glacial lakes (>0.1 km2), this would constitute an increase in lake area of ∼120–∼210% in 2100 compared to 2018. The lake volume is expected to increase by 22.8 ± 6.7 km3 for SSP126 and 39.7 ± 7.7 km3 for SSP585. This range includes a drastic tenfold increase in lake volume, from estimated 3.9 km3 in 2018 to 43.6 ± 7.7 km3 in 2100. However, there is a considerable spread between total and relative increase in glacial lake area and volume for different sub-regions of High Mountain Asia. As both, lake area and lake volume, could to lead to an increase in GLOF risk, the results emphasize the urgent need for more localized, in-depth studies at especially vulnerable locations in order to enable local communities to adapt to emerging challenges, to implement risk minimization measures, and to improve sustainable development in High Mountain Asia.

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“…The Tsho Rolpa Lake is selected as the case study for this work, which is the largest moraine-dammed proglacial lake in Nepal and was identified as one of the country's most dangerous glacier lakes with a high possibility of outburst (Rana et al 2000;Bajracharya et al 2020).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the potential impact of glacial lake outburst floods on individual objects using a high-performance hydrodynamic model and open-source data

Chen

Zhao

Liang

et al. 2022

Science of The Total Environment

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Inventory of glacial lakes and identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali river basins of Nepal, the Tibet Autonomous Region of China, and India

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Enhancing the resilience of food production systems for food and nutritional security under climate change in Nepal

Enhancing the resilience of food production systems for food and nutritional security under climate change in Nepal

Projected 21st-Century Glacial Lake Evolution in High Mountain Asia

Assessing the potential impact of glacial lake outburst floods on individual objects using a high-performance hydrodynamic model and open-source data

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