Invasion growth rate and its relevance to persistence: a response to Technical Comment by Ellner <i>et al</i>.

Pande, Jayant; Fung, Tak; Chisholm, Ryan A.; Shnerb, Nadav M.

doi:10.1111/ele.13585

Cited by 13 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Importantly, the magnitude of these auto-correlations can lead to different ecological outcomes due to differences in transient versus long-term responses of species to changing interaction rates [Bender et al, 1984, Hastings et al, 2018]. Understanding how these effects combine across multiple species, how they interact with other coexistence mechanisms [Chesson, 2018], and how they are impacted by demographic stochasticity [Pande et al, 2020a, Ellner et al, 2020, Pande et al, 2020b] provide significant challenges for future work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporally Auto-Correlated Predator Attacks Structure Ecological Communities

Schreiber

2021

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For species regulated by a common predator, the P* rule predicts that the prey species that supports the highest mean predator density (P*) excludes the other prey species. This prediction is re-examined in the presence of temporal fluctuations in the vital rates of the interacting species including predator attack rates. When the fluctuations in predator attack rates are temporally uncorrelated, the P* rule still holds even when the other vital rates are temporally auto-correlated. However, when temporal auto-correlations in attack rates are positive but not too strongly, the prey species can coexist due to the emergence of a positive covariance between predator density and prey vulnerability. This coexistence mechanism is similar to the storage effect for species regulated by a common resource. Strongly positive or negative auto-correlations in attack rates generate a negative covariance between predator density and prey vulnerability and a stochastic priority effect can emerge: with non-zero probability either prey species is excluded. These results highlight how temporally auto-correlated species' interaction rates impact the structure and dynamics of ecological communities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding how these effects combine across multiple species, how they interact with other coexistence mechanisms [Chesson, 2018], and how they are impacted by demographic stochasticity [Pande et al, 2020a, Ellner et al, 2020, Pande et al, 2020b] provide significant challenges for future work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporally Auto-Correlated Predator Attacks Structure Ecological Communities

Schreiber

2021

Preprint

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“…Some progress has been made on understanding the role of temporal variation on coexistence times [Pande et al, 2020b, Ellner et al, 2020, Pande et al, 2020a]. For example, using the methods presented here, [Ellner et al, 2020] found that the mean invasion growth rates for the lottery model [Warner and Chesson, 1985] are strongly correlated with intrinsic coexistence times.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does deterministic coexistence theory matter in a finite world?

Schreiber

Levine

Godoy

et al. 2018

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Much of the recent work on species coexistence is based on studying per-capita growth rates of species when rare (invasion growth rates) in deterministic models where populations have continuous densities and extinction only occurs as densities approach zero over an infinite time horizon. In nature, extinctions occur in finite time and rarity corresponds to small, discrete populations whose dynamics are not well approximated by deterministic models. To understand whether the biological significance of these discrepancies, we parameterized a stochastic counterpart of a classical deterministic model of competition using data from annual plants competing on serpentine soils. While the minimum of the invasion growth rates explained up to 60% of the variation in the predicted coexistence times, species pairs with similar invasion growth rates had coexistence times that differed by several orders of magnitude. By integrating the deterministic invasion growth rates and coexistence equilibrium population sizes, a simplified stochastic model explained over 99% of the variation in the coexistence times. This simplified model corresponds to uncoupled single species models whose parameters are determined from the two species model. This simplified model shows that coexistence times are approximately one-half of the harmonic mean of these single species' persistence times. Furthermore, coexistence times increase and saturate with invasion growth rates, but increase exponentially with equilibrium population sizes. When the minimum of the invasion growth rate is sufficiently greater than one, coexistence times of 1, 000 years occur even when the inferior species has < 50 individuals at the deterministic coexistence equilibrium. When the fitness inferior has the lower equilibrium population size (which occurs for 6 out of 8 of the deterministically coexisting pairs), niche overlap and fitness differences negatively impact coexistence times, which is consistent with the deterministic theory. However, when the fitness inferior has the higher equilibrium population size (2 species pairs), coexistence times can exhibit a humped shaped relationship with fitness differences-increasing and then decreasing with fitness differences. Collectively our results support the use of deterministic theory to infer the controls over coexistence in finite systems, while also highlighting when ecologists must look beyond invasion growth rates and consider species equilibrium population sizes.

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“…Stochasticity can be a determinant factor of invasion success in the early stages of establishment so that the invasion growth rate is not necessarily a good quantitative metric of success (Pande et al., 2020b). Here, we consider whether invasion is deterministically possible (Pande et al., 2020a), and more importantly, what will be its impact if successful, assuming that in that case, the invader population will be large enough that demographic stochasticity can be neglected (Blackburn et al., 2015).…”

Section: An Extension Of Invasion Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Invasions of ecological communities: Hints of impacts in the invader's growth rate

et al. 2021

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Theory in ecology and evolution often relies on the analysis of invasion processes, and general approaches exist to understand the early stages of an invasion. However, predicting the long‐term transformations of communities following an invasion remains a challenging endeavour. We propose a general analytical method that uses both resident community and invader dynamical features to predict whether an invasion causes large long‐term impacts on the invaded community. This approach reveals a direction in which classic invasion analysis, based on initial invasion growth rate, can be extended. Indeed, we explain how the density dependence of invasion growth, if properly defined, synthetically encodes the long‐term biotic transformations caused by an invasion, and therefore predicts its ultimate outcome. This approach further clarifies how the density dependence of the invasion growth rate is as much a property of the invading population as it is one of the invaded community. Our theory applies to any stable community model, and directs us towards new questions that may enrich the toolset of invasion analysis, and suggests that indirect interactions and dynamical stability are key determinants of invasion outcomes.

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Invasion growth rate and its relevance to persistence: a response to Technical Comment by Ellner et al.

Cited by 13 publications

References 15 publications

Temporally Auto-Correlated Predator Attacks Structure Ecological Communities

Temporally Auto-Correlated Predator Attacks Structure Ecological Communities

Does deterministic coexistence theory matter in a finite world?

Invasions of ecological communities: Hints of impacts in the invader's growth rate

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