Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty in Hydrosystem Engineering

Goodarzi, Ehsan; Ziaei, Mina; Shui, Lee Teang

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5851-3

Cited by 12 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…Generally, in engineering applications, capacity and load functions are not defined properly and only parameters of these variables are expected values and variances (Yenigun, 2001). Further, using Taylor series expansion in the MFOSM and AFOSM simplifies the difficulty in finding the probability density function of continuous and discrete variables (Goodarzi et al, 2013). The only difference between MFOSM and AFOSM is using average or actual values of performance function variables in Taylor series expansion.…”

Section: Risk Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Investigation of the Maximum Flow Trends and Their Impact on Risk Levels of Spillways

Yenigün¹

2016

Appl Ecol Env Res

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Abstract. Flood discharge capacity is used as input parameter for spillway design, and it is sensitive to climate change effects. One of the main aims of climate studies is seeing the result of the variability of climatic parameters on water structures. So, the observed maximum flow must be evaluated by the view of trend analysis of maximum flow data. At the same time, changing the risk levels of spillways must be evaluated by risk analysis using same data. Thus, the relationship between maximum data flow and flood risk can easily be understood. Based on the updated observation data, new or existing spillways can be designed or rehabilitated accurately. Ten selected dams in Turkey are studied for evaluating the aim, while Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests are used for investigating trends. The MFOSM (Mean Value First Order Second Moment) and AFOSM (Advanced FOSM) methods are used for analyzing the risks. Using maximum flow parameters, the existence of trends and safety level of spillways are reported for selected dams. Results show us the process of observation of the updated maximum flow data, and its effect on risk levels for dam safety is crucial for prediction and prevention of the flood damages.

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Section: Risk Analysis Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each method has some advantages and disadvantages. Goodarzi et al (2013) have created a chronological list of advances of major risk and uncertainty analysis in hydro system engineering.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Maximum Flow Trends and Their Impact on Risk Levels of Spillways

Yenigün¹

2016

Appl Ecol Env Res

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“…The first two components of uncertainty qualify as statistically quantifiable uncertainty and, therefore, can be reduced by improving existing knowledge, applying standard statistical instruments such as Monte Carlo simulation, i.e., finding appropriate solutions by generating sequences of random numbers [28]. The last three components represent genuine uncertainty components and can be characterized, to some extent, by using scientific approaches, but cannot be completely resolved.…”

Section: Scientific Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework of Adaptive Risk Governance for Urban Planning

Renn¹,

Klinke

2013

Sustainability

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Abstract:The notion -risk governance‖ refers to an integrated concept on how to deal with public risks in general, and so-called complex, ambiguous and uncertain risks in particular. These ideas have been informed by interdisciplinary research drawing from sociological and psychological research on risk, Science and Technology Studies (STS) and research by policy scientists and legal scholars. The notion of risk governance pertains to the many ways in which many actors, individuals and institutions, public and private, deal with risks. It includes formal institutions and regimes and informal arrangements. The paper will first develop an adaptive and integrative framework of risk governance and applies this model to the risks of urban planning. After a short summary of the roots of risk governance, key concepts, such as simple, uncertain, complex and ambiguous risks, will be discussed. The main emphasis will be on each of the five phases of risk governance: pre-assessment, interdisciplinary assessment, risk evaluation, risk management and risk communication. The paper will explain how these phases of risk governance can be applied to the area of urban planning and improve the dynamic sustainability of cities.

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“…Flood frequency analysis defines the severity of a flood event by summarizing the characteristics of the flood, and by finding out their mutual dependence structure. A number of methodologies have been developed to perform univariate (see [1], [2], [3] and [4]) and multivariate flood frequency analysis by ([5] and [6]). However, according to [7], both univariate and multivariate techniques require several restrictive assumptions that all variables are independent, but the real phenomena are actually multivariate with significant interrelationships among the variables.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sungai Johor watershed was selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. The Sungai Johor watershed is one of the largest catchments in Johor with an area of about 2700 km 2 . A large portion of this watershed is flood prone and is frequently affected by major floods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bivariate copulas functions for flood frequency analysis

Salleh

Yusof²,

Yusop³

2016

AIP Conference Proceedings

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Abstract.Bivariate flood frequency analysis offers improved understanding of the complex flood process and useful information in preparing flood mitigation measures. However, difficulties arise from limited bivariate distribution functions to jointly model major flood variables that are inter-correlated and each has different univariate marginal distribution. To overcome these difficulties, a Copula based methodology is presented in this study. Copula is functions that link univariate distribution functions to form bivariate distribution functions. Five Copula families namely Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, Gaussian and t Copulas were evaluated for modeling the joint dependence between peak flow-flood duration. The performance of four parameter estimation methods, namely inversion of Kendall's tau, inversion of Spearman's rho, maximum likelihood approach and inference function for margins for chosen copula's families are investigated. The analysis used 35 years hourly discharge data of Johor River from which the annual maximum were derived. Generalized Pareto and Generalized Extreme Value distribution were found to be the best to fit the flood variables based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. Clayton Copula was chosen as the best fitted Copula function based on the Akaike Information Criterion goodness-of-fit test. It is found that, different methods of parameter estimation will give the same result on determining the best fit copula family. On performing a simulation based on a Cramer-von Mises as a test statistics to assess the performance of Copula distributions in modeling joint dependence structure of flood variables, it is found that Clayton Copula are well representing the flood variables. Thus, it is concluded that, the Clayton Copula based joint distribution function was found to be effective in preserving the dependency structure of flood variables. Thus, it is concluded that, the Clayton Copula based joint distribution function was found to be effective in preserving the dependency structure of flood variables.

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Introduction to Risk and Uncertainty in Hydrosystem Engineering

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Investigation of the Maximum Flow Trends and Their Impact on Risk Levels of Spillways

Investigation of the Maximum Flow Trends and Their Impact on Risk Levels of Spillways

A Framework of Adaptive Risk Governance for Urban Planning

Bivariate copulas functions for flood frequency analysis

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