Introduction and index to Fieldiana: Geology volume 33 / Eugene S. Richardson, Jr. -- William D. Turnbull --.

Richardson, Eugene Stanley; Turnbull, William D.

doi:10.5962/bhl.title.5313

Cited by 33 publications

(45 citation statements)

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“…In all the cases that have been considered in this study, the correlation coef cient was never below 0.99, even for rare events. This result con rms those obtained by Richardson (2000) for EPS-based probabilistic forecasts of precipitation amounts and 850 hPa temperature anomaly. There exists consistent empirical evidence from a number of studies that the bi-normal model allows an excellent t of ROC curves built from probabilistic weather forecasts (Mason 1982).…”

Section: Estimation Of Reliability Through a Statistical Schemesupporting

confidence: 53%

“…Although further experiments have con rmed previous results obtained by Richardson (2000) about the appropriateness of the bi-normal model for tting ROC curves in the case of precipitation forecasts, the method might still prove irrelevant for other meteorological variables, other domains and other periods of time than those considered in the present study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 44%

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Estimation of the reliability of ensemble‐based probabilistic forecasts

Atger

2004

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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SUMMARYReliability is an essential attribute of the quality of probabilistic forecasts. It is traditionally estimated by de ning a number of arbitrary probability categories. Reliability is often dif cult to estimate accurately with a small sample size. This occurs, for example, when evaluating high probabilities of rare events. Signi cance tests are used in this study in order to determine an appropriate categorization of forecast probabilities for the estimation of reliability. For events occurring frequently, this method leads to credible estimates of the performance for the whole range of forecast probabilities. On the other hand, the reliability of higher probabilities for infrequent events cannot be estimated with con dence. A statistical scheme has been designed for estimating reliability from limited samples, even in the case of rare events and higher probabilities. The procedure consists of tting a Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve under the bi-normal assumption. The validity of the method is discussed by testing its ability to estimate reliability from truncated veri cation samples. The positive impact of a basic method of calibration is increased when it is applied after an estimation of reliability through a tting of the ROC curve.

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Section: Estimation Of Reliability Through a Statistical Schemesupporting

confidence: 53%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 44%

Estimation of the reliability of ensemble‐based probabilistic forecasts

Atger

2004

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…The inclusion of either a second model or a second analysis improved the ensemble skill, but the greatest bene t resulted from using both models and analyses. Richardson (2001) found that especially the use of different operational analyses was bene cial for de ning an ensemble strategy; the additional bene ts of including different models was less clear.…”

Section: Forcing Linear Models: Two Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forcing singular vectors and other sensitive model structures

Barkmeijer

Iversen

Palmer

2003

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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SUMMARYModel tendency perturbations can, like analysis perturbations, be an effective way to in uence forecasts. In this paper, optimal model tendency perturbations, or forcing singular vectors, are computed with diabatic linear and adjoint T42L40 versions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' forecast model. During the forecast time, the spatial pattern of the tendency perturbation does not vary and the response at optimization time (48 hours) is measured in terms of total energy. Their properties are compared with those of initial singular vectors, and differences, such as larger horizontal scale and location, are discussed. Sensitivity calculations are also performed, whereby a cost function measuring the 2-day forecast error is minimized by only allowing tendency perturbations. For a given number of minimization steps, this approach yields larger costfunction reductions than the sensitivity calculation using only analysis perturbations. Nonlinear forecasts using only one type of perturbation con rm an improved performance in the case of tendency perturbations. For a summer experiment a substantial reduction of the systematic error is shown in the case of forcing sensitivity.

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“…The conformation of residues Arg42 -His45 is defined by a large number of NOES, a number of which are unusual (most notably Cys43 CI to Arg42 NH and Cys43 a to Val39 a), and a unique set of dihedral angles are produced (see Table 5 ) which can be characterised, following Efimov (1986), as yR, xL, yR, /I. The section Glu44-His45 closely resembles a classic /I-bulge (Richardson et al, 1978), with Val39 acting as the control residue. This is supported by the frequent observation of hydrogen bonds from Glu44-NH and His45-NH to Va139-0 in dynamics simulations (see below) and the fact that the side chains of Va139, Glu44 and His45 are all on the same side of the P-sheet.…”

Section: Backbone Conformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The solution structure of human transforming growth factor α

Harvey

Wilkinson²,

Tappin

et al. 1991

European Journal of Biochemistry

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The solution structure of transforming growth factor α has been determined by a combination of highresolution 1H‐nuclear magnetic resonance and distance geometry and restrained molecular dynamics. The 382 restraints derived from the NMR experiments were used to calculate many distance geometry structures, which were then refined by restrained molecular mechanics. Five of these structures were further refined using a variety of methods. Comparison of independently measured parameters, such as calculated hydrogen bonding patterns and experimental amide exchange rates, have been used to evaluate the accuracy of the structures. Also, possible mechanisms to explain the pH‐dependent conformational interconversion observed are suggested. Finally comparisons between this work and others on this topic have been made.

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Introduction and index to Fieldiana: Geology volume 33 / Eugene S. Richardson, Jr. -- William D. Turnbull --.

Cited by 33 publications

References 0 publications

Estimation of the reliability of ensemble‐based probabilistic forecasts

Estimation of the reliability of ensemble‐based probabilistic forecasts

Forcing singular vectors and other sensitive model structures

The solution structure of human transforming growth factor α

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