Introducing the Framework Model for the Evaluation of Deterrent Value of States

Abstract

The term ‘deterrence’ is closely intertwined with the national security of sovereign states and is frequently misunderstood within strategic literature. Some argue that acquiring specific arms and equipment is essential for achieving deterrence, while others contend that security hinges on the acquisition of Deterrent Value (DV) through various means, including but not limited to arms and equipment. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of deterrence―its definitions, conceptual framework, political objectives, and its role as a military strategy―is crucial before forming a reasoned judgment about its effectiveness as a safeguard for national security. This paper aims to construct a framework model delineating a state’s deterrent capability as the paramount guarantor of its national security. Employing both inductive and deductive reasoning, this model will objectively analyze the efficacy, or lack thereof, of the tools upon which the security architecture of any state is founded. By facilitating case studies of diverse states, the framework model will aid researchers in predicting future events and extracting relevant lessons from past occurrences.