Introducing Resources in Oil Spill Trajectory Modeling – Contingency Analysis

Oil spills have been identified as a common consequence of the exploration and production of petroleum resources. This is likely to increase with the continuous rise in demand for petroleum and petroleum products. The Clair oilfield holds the largest undeveloped hydrocarbon accumulation in the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS), indicating its importance to the future of UK production strategy. Significant developments made in oil spill modelling in the last twenty years suggest the need for an updated study on the behaviour of a Clair oil spill. This study aims to design an updated stochastic model for oil spill prediction in the Clair Oilfield in order to provide an understanding of the trajectory, fate and uncertainties of spilled oil at varying environmental conditions. The GNOME software was employed to model the oil spill trajectory in the Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC) and ADIOS2 for modelling the Clair oil spill weathering processes. "Minimum regret" analysis suggests that spills allowed to persist will cross the Norway/UK boundary line and move further towards the Norwegian coastline. Furthermore, there is the possibility of oil beaching along the coast of the Shetland Island if the oil spill occurs. The weathering models revealed that evaporation will account for about 15% of the oil lost in both summer and winter while dispersion will account for 15% and 30% of the oil lost in summer and winter respectively. Within the 5-day scenario considered the Clair oil forms a meso-stable emulsion resulting in a 100 times increase in the viscosity of the oil and a slight increase in density. Furthermore, airborne benzene concentration evaporated within 15 hours and 6 hours in summer and winter respectively. The results obtained in this study suggest that equipment should be stockpiled as well as mechanical responders for near shore intervention to prevent and tackle possible beaching along the Shetland island coast and the Norwegian coast.

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Oil Spill Fate and Trajectory Simulation for Sierra Leone's Offshore Exploration Basin, Using the Savanah-1X Well as the Focal Point

Momoh¹,

Bassey

2021

International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings

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The demand for crude oil and petroleum products have subsequently led to an increase in the likelihood of occurrence of oil spills. It is therefore imperative to understand the impacts of these spills on humans and the environment. Developing appropriate oil spill response and remediation techniques can be achieved by understanding the fate and likely trajectory of different types of oils, once they come in contact with the sea surface. Though still at the nascent stage of oil and gas exploration, the Sierra Leone basin is known to hold large undeveloped hydrocarbon reserves which are being exploited with the aim of contributing to national development. With the availability of oil spill modelling tools, and owing to the fact that environmental conditions vary over time, there is the need to carry out routine studies on the likely behavior of a spill offshore Sierra Leone. This study aims to develop a prediction model that would aid in understanding the fate, trajectory and uncertainties of oil spilled on Sierra Leone waters in the dry, rainy, and harmattan seasons. In order to analyze the trajectory of a spill in the Sierra Leone basin, the GNOME software was used. Furthermore, ADIOS2 was also employed to analyze the weathering processes of the spill. The results obtained from GNOME showed that during the dry and rainy seasons, approximately 15% of oil would be stranded on the shores of Sierra Leone, within three – five days. Owing to the permanently warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea basin, a high percentage of the oil is expected to evaporate and disperse within few days of the spill. The weathering models from ADIOS2 reveal that 34% of oil would be lost to evaporation in the dry season, and 36% and 38% will be lost in the rainy and harmattan seasons respectively. Furthermore, it can be seen that dispersion accounts for 2.5% of oil lost in the dry season, 7.8% during the rainy season and 6.2% in the harmattan period. Within 5-days, ADIOS2 reveals a stable water-in-oil emulsion, leading to an increase in viscosity and density. Airborne benzene concentration is expected to be high on the first day of the spill, but would decrease as the days go by. Based on these results, it is recommended that oil spill response personnel are professionally trained, and equipment must be available to respond to spills in a timely and efficient manner.

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Introducing Resources in Oil Spill Trajectory Modeling – Contingency Analysis

Cited by 3 publications

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Oil Spills Identification in SAR Image Using Optimized RBF Network Model

Oil Spills Identification in SAR Image Using Optimized RBF Network Model

Oil Spill Trajectory Simulation for the Clair Oilfield, Faroe Shetland Channel, United Kingdom Continental Shelf

Oil Spill Fate and Trajectory Simulation for Sierra Leone's Offshore Exploration Basin, Using the Savanah-1X Well as the Focal Point

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