Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways

Rajabzadeh, Vida; Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar; Shourijeh, Piltan Tabatabaie; Haghighi, Ali Torabi

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2022.109030

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Even if construction has already commenced or the design phase has been completed, it may be necessary to revise the spillway design with climate change considerations. In this regard, options to enhance the spillway's physical performance include optimizing the spillway, installing an auxiliary spillway [251], constructing a bypass-diversion dam to decrease reservoir inflow [250], or installing fuse plugs to release water gradually and in a controlled manner [252]. It is likely that some of these options may not be feasible for certain sites.…”

Section: Threshold Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

Islam,

Fereshtehpour,

Najafi

et al. 2024

Discov Appl Sci

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Increasing frequency and intensification of flooding pose significant threats to critical structures, such as dams and levees. Failure of these structures can lead to substantial economic losses and significant adverse environmental and social consequences. Improving the resilience of these structures against climate-related impacts is important to avoid future risks of failure due to the potential intensification of flooding. National-level guidance on integrating resilience-based frameworks and addressing climate risks and uncertainties in existing design flood estimation methodologies for dams and levees are lacking. To address these gaps, this study first reviews projected climate change patterns for Canada and then discusses regional vulnerabilities of dams by considering significant historical floods and their consequences. Subsequently, a review of existing design flood estimation procedures, with a focus on frequency- and probable maximum flood-based approaches, is conducted to identify areas where climate change-related aspects can be integrated. By examining the challenges associated with various stages of design flood estimation procedures, the review discusses a framework for enhancing climate resiliency of dams and levees considering four pillars of resilience. Furthermore, Canadian design flood estimation practices are compared with international practices to identify areas that require attention. The study highlights the importance of a resilience-based framework in providing design and operation guidance to ensure that dams and levees are resilient to climate impacts. Policymakers and engineers can prioritize consideration of climate-resilience in the design and operation of these structures in order to safeguard communities and infrastructure from the growing risks of future floods associated with climate change.

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Section: Threshold Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

Islam,

Fereshtehpour,

Najafi

et al. 2024

Discov Appl Sci

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“…Changes in hydrological conditions within the catchment can also reduce the habitat area for aquatic organisms [9]. Furthermore, considering that the intensity of rainfall is increasing due to climate change [10,11], waterlogging [12] and flooding [13] are becoming increasing threats. These phenomena can have negative socioeconomic impacts and, in some cases, even lead to the death of residents [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Method for Selecting the Geometry of Systems for Surface Infiltration of Stormwater with Retention

Kordana-Obuch

Starzec

2023

Water

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The application of infiltration basins and tanks is one of the primary means of sustainable stormwater management. However, the methods currently used to size these facilities do not take into account a number of parameters that have a significant impact on their required capacity. In light of this, the aim of this research was to develop a new method for selecting the geometry of the infiltration basins and tanks. Its application in the initial phase of designing stormwater management systems will allow assessing the validity of using such facilities in a given catchment area. This paper also presents the results of local and global sensitivity analyses examining how changes in individual design parameters influence stormwater infiltration facilities. The effectiveness of the developed model was evaluated through the example of a real urban catchment. The study was based on a hydrodynamic analysis of more than 3000 model catchments. The research plan was developed using Statistica software. On the other hand, the analysis of the results of hydrodynamic simulations was made possible through the use of artificial neural networks designed using the Python programming language. The research also confirmed that parameters such as the total catchment area, the percent of impervious area, and the type of soil within the catchment are crucial in the design process of these facilities. The results of this research can be considered when designing infiltration basins and tanks under Polish conditions. The described algorithm can also be used by other researchers to develop similar models based on different rainfall data. This will contribute to increasing the safety of urban infrastructure.

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“…It has been somewhat studied from a historical perspective but only recently from an engineering point of view by Torres-Alves and Morales-Nápoles (2020); Pouliasis et al (2021) where the probability of failure due to overflow (P O ) was investigated. Several probabilistic approaches have been used to estimate P O , the most popular including Monte Carlo Simulation methods utilizing Bivariate distributions and copulas to describe hydraulic and hydrological variables (see Pol et al (2023); Rajabzadeh et al (2023) for example). Rongen et al (2022) used Cooke's method for combining experts' estimates in a structured way to estimate discharges that lead to at least one dike failure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model

Mendoza-Lugo,

Torres-Alves,

Morales-Nápoles

2023

Proceeding of the 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference

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Investigating the reliability of ancient hydraulic structures constructed without modern probabilistic criteria allows an understanding of why and how the structure fails. In this paper, we present an extended method, firstly introduced by Torres-Alves and Morales-Nápoles (2020), to perform the reliability analysis of the Nezahualcoyotl's dike that was designed (most likely) without probabilistic criteria. The dike was built around 1450 by the Aztec empire dividing Lake Texcoco from north to south (present-day Mexico City). We estimate the probability of failure due to overflow. By using a discrete time-state Markov chain and bi-variate copulas to generate large synthetic observations of the environmental variables precipitation and evaporation. In addition to the previous methodology, two sources of uncertainty were taken into account (i) the characterization of the environmental conditions during the dry season to estimate initial water levels on the lake and (ii) the influence of surface runoff and subsurface seepage losses on the water levels. The extended method allows for better characterization of the lacustrine system. Therefore an improved extent of the hydrology of the system and a more reliable estimation of the probability of failure of Nezahualcoyotl's dike are presented.

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Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways

Cited by 4 publications

References 58 publications

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

Climate-resilience of dams and levees in Canada: a review

A New Method for Selecting the Geometry of Systems for Surface Infiltration of Stormwater with Retention

Reliability Analysis of the Ancient Nezahualcoyotl's Dike: Investigating Failure Due to Overflow Using an Improved Hydrological Model

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