Intrinsic Pink-Noise Multidecadal Global Climate Dynamics Mode

Abstract

Understanding multidecadal variability is an essential goal of climate dynamics. For example, the recent phenomenon referred to as the "global warming hiatus" may reflect a coupling to an intrinsic, preindustrial, multidecadal variability process. Here, using a multifractal time-series method, we demonstrate that 42 data sets of 79 proxies with global coverage exhibit pink-noise characteristics on multidecadal timescales. To quantify the persistence of this behavior, we examine high-resolution ice core and speleothem data to find pink noise in both pre- and postindustrial periods. We examine the spatial structure with an empirical orthogonal function analysis of the monthly averaged surface temperature from 1901 to 2012. The first mode clearly shows the distribution of ocean heat flux sinks located in the eastern Pacific and the Southern Ocean and has pink-noise characteristics on a multidecadal timescale. We hypothesize that this pink-noise multidecadal spatial mode may resonate with externally driven greenhouse gas forcing, driving large-scale climate processes.

Forecasting unprecedented ecological fluctuations

“…In this regime, the restoring force to perturbations becomes relatively weak, and stochasticity can drive extreme fluctuations, giving rise to a state of so-called "marginal stability" (S2 Fig) [34][35][36]. Empirical evidence of marginal stability has been found in ecosystems at the 'edge of chaos' [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. However, the specific generative mechanism is expected to be irrelevant to statistical features of dynamic fluctuations and thereby the determination of scaling laws.…”

“…Theoretical models and long-term tracking of natural and experimental ecosystems have identified widespread aperiodic fluctuations spanning orders of magnitude in amplitude and duration [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. These fluctuations, especially rare but large-amplitude 'Black Swan' events, have significant ecological and economic impact [7,8], generating a pressing need for forecasting and management strategies.…”

The evolutionary maintenance of Lévy flight foraging

“…However, in a fluctuating September 16, 2021 3/30 environment strong spatial memory may lose its utility if the distribution of resources is continually changing. Given that a temporally fluctuating environment is inextricably linked with evolution [43][44][45][46][47][48], there are arguably cases where more explorative searching behaviour, due to weaker memory, would lead to higher fitness outcomes over evolutionary time. And if strength of memory is a heritable trait, the selective pressure for a weaker spatial memory -or Lévy-like behavior -would be higher, thus providing additional argumentation for the intrinsic hypothesis.…”

Analytical Survival Analysis of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process

“…In a clinical setting the health of the hepatic dynamic equilibrium is fit to an OU process using maximum likelihood estimation [3]. Stochastic volatility, crucial for deducing stock returns or option pricing, is treated in terms of an OU process [4], as are the noise spectra of climate observations [5][6][7].…”