INTRODUCTION: Hypertriglyceridemia is the third most common etiology of acute pancreatitis. Whether triglyceride variability, independent of absolute triglyceride levels, is a predictor of acute pancreatitis is unknown.
METHODS:We identified 98,819 patients who were diagnosed with hyperlipidemia between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2013, and had at least 1 triglyceride measurement annually for 4 consecutive years from the Chang Gung Research Database in Taiwan. Triglyceride variability, defined as variability independent of the mean, was calculated in the 4-year run-in period. The patients were stratified according to the quartiles of triglyceride variability and were followed until December 31, 2019, for first attack of acute pancreatitis.
RESULTS:During a mean follow-up of 5.9 years, 825 (0.83%) patients were newly diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (14.1 events per 10,000 person-years; 95% confidence interval 13.2-15.1). Triglyceride variability was significantly associated with an increased risk of acute pancreatitis, independent of baseline triglyceride and mean triglyceride levels (hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% confidence interval 1.05-1.57] for the highest vs the lowest quartiles of triglyceride variability; P for trend 5 0.006 over the quartiles of triglyceride variability). Subgroup analysis showed that this association was more pronounced among the patients with a higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (P for trend 5 0.022).