Interpretation of interannual winter temperature variations over southwestern Europe

Sáenz, Jon; Rodríguez‐Puebla, Conceptión; Fernández, Jesús Fernández; Zubillaga, Juan

doi:10.1029/2001jd900247

Cited by 70 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 31 publications

(9 reference statements)

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“…The analysis performed in terms of percentiles showed an increase in the number of hot days and a decrease in the number of cold days, with a 99% confidence level (Brunet et al 2007). Other studies (Sáenz et al 2001b) showed similar trends (0.2-0.3°C dec -1 ) during winter, for a denser set of stations over land locations along the Cantabrian coast (reference period 1950-1996). Aravena et al (2009a) used monthly anomalies of temperatures and teleconnection indices (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) and found a significant correlation between air temperature over the Basque Country and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

Climate change impacts on coastal and pelagic environments in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

Chust¹,

Borja²,

Caballero³

et al. 2011

Clim. Res.

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The impacts of global climate change on the Basque coast and the pelagic systems within the southeastern Bay of Biscay are reviewed. Climate projections under greenhouse gas emission scenarios indicate that this area will experience changes in climate throughout the 21st century, including warming of surface air (especially heat wave episodes), intensification of extreme daily rainfall (10%), warming of the upper 100 m of the ocean layer (1.5 to 2.05°C), and sea level rise (SLR; 29 to 49 cm). Observations made in the bay throughout the 20th century for air temperature and mean sea level are in agreement with these projections. Trends in ocean-climatic historical observations within the area, including sea temperature, precipitation, upwelling/downwelling, turbulence and wave climate, are also reviewed. The main impacts on the coast are expected to be from SLR, especially in low-lying areas (mostly urbanised) within estuaries. Sandy beaches are also expected to undergo significant mean shoreline retreats of between 25 and 40% of their width. As the sea level rises, the natural migration of saltmarshes and intertidal seagrasses landward will be constrained, in most cases, by existing anthropogenic fixed boundaries. Empirical relationships between the distribution and dynamics of the long-term biological measures (plankton, primary production, benthos, and fisheries) on the one hand, and ocean-climatic variability on the other, indicate that pelagic and coastal water ecosystems will be affected by ocean warming, increased stratification, shifts in anomaly patterns and streamflow regimes. The largest uncertainties are associated with the lack of downscaled projections within the bay on ocean circulation, ocean-meteorological indices, wave climate and ocean acidification.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

Climate change impacts on coastal and pelagic environments in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

Chust¹,

Borja²,

Caballero³

et al. 2011

Clim. Res.

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“…The associations with these two dominant modes of atmospheric variability in SW Europe (Sáenz et al 2001) were unstable since the correlations with the Scandinavian index peaked in the 1967-1986 period, whereas the NAO effects have changed from positive to negative. This transition was clearer for the western declining sites than elsewhere which suggests some connection between atmospheric variability and silver-fir dieback (Camarero 2011).…”

Section: Climate-growth Associations: the Critical Rolementioning

confidence: 99%

The Multiple Factors Explaining Decline in Mountain Forests: Historical Logging and Warming-Related Drought Stress is Causing Silver-Fir Dieback in the Aragón Pyrenees

Camarero

2017

High Mountain Conservation in a Changing World

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The drivers and patterns of drought-related forest dieback are not as well understood in mountain conifer forests. Most studies have obviated the role of historical use as a predisposing factor of forest dieback. Here I focus on the recent silver-fir (Abies alba) dieback observed since the 1980s in the Aragón Pyrenees (NE Spain) as study case. I argue that such dieback was predisposed by past historical logging and incited by warming-induced drought. I analyzed environmental, structural and tree-ring data from 32 sites with contrasting degrees of dieback at the tree and stand levels. I found that a peak in late-summer water deficit observed in 1985 caused a severe growth reduction in 1986, resulting in subsequent crown defoliation, dieback and increased mortality. Dieback was more severe and widespread in western low-elevation mixed forests dominated by smaller trees with low growth rates. These marginal sites receive less late-summer rainfall, which is a key climatic variable controlling silver-fir growth, than eastern sites. Declining sites showed more frequent growth releases induced by historical logging than non-declining sites. Silver-fir growth is becoming more dependent on climatic conditions of previous September, which may be connected with changing modes of atmospheric variability affecting Iberian climate. Historical logging and warming-induced drought stress during late summer are the most likely predisposing and inciting factors driving silver-fir dieback, respectively. A sustainable management of mountain forests shaped by past historical use requires changing their current structure and composition to make them more resilient to climate warming.

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“…Many studies have been published relating changes in Mediterranean air temperature regimes to the largescale atmospheric circulation (Corte-Real et al, 1995, 1998Reddaway and Bigg, 1996;Hurrell and van Loon, 1997;Kutiel and Maheras, 1998;Maheras et al, 1999;Saenz et al, 2001;Kutiel and Benaroch, 2002;Xoplaki, 2002;Xoplaki et al, 2002). Some of these papers evaluated the fraction of air temperature variability explained by major sea-level pressure (SLP) and/or upper-air large-scale anomalies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wintertime surface temperature in Egypt in relation to the associated atmospheric circulation

Hasanean

2004

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Mean wintertime temperatures (December, January, February) recorded during the period 1905-2000 at 18 weather stations distributed across Egypt were analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends. The relationship between winter atmospheric circulation indices and winter temperature in Egypt is examined using correlation analysis. The atmospheric circulation is represented by four indices: the well-known El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index, East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) index, and East Atlantic (EA) index.Surface temperature is a stable climatic element whose coefficient of variation (COV) is lower during winter. A statistically significant relation between COV and latitude indicates that stations in the south, Upper Egypt, are more variable than stations in the north, Lower Egypt. Increasing and decreasing winter surface temperature trends were found. In general, wintertime temperature has increased (warming) at most stations. Decreasing trends (cooling) are observed mainly over Upper Egypt. The upward trends in mean winter temperature during the 1910s-30s, mid 1970s, and early 1980s-2000 and the downward trends during the 1940s and 1960s are prominent features of the temporal distributions. The warming period that occurred early in the century may be explained by changes in circulation. Striking upward trends are most remarkable during the last 20 years. This could be attributed not only to human activities, but also to atmospheric circulation changes. No detectable connection between Egypt temperature and either ENSO or EA index was found during winter. A statistically significant negative relationship between winter temperature and winter NAO index can be observed. The NAO index is more dominant in determining winter temperature than ENSO circulation. A significantly stronger negative relationship between temperature over Egypt and the winter EAWR index values is detected.

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Interpretation of interannual winter temperature variations over southwestern Europe

Abstract: Abstract.A great part of winter temperature variability over southwestern Europe (

Cited by 70 publications

References 31 publications

Climate change impacts on coastal and pelagic environments in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

Climate change impacts on coastal and pelagic environments in the southeastern Bay of Biscay

The Multiple Factors Explaining Decline in Mountain Forests: Historical Logging and Warming-Related Drought Stress is Causing Silver-Fir Dieback in the Aragón Pyrenees

Wintertime surface temperature in Egypt in relation to the associated atmospheric circulation

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