Interpretability-based machine learning for predicting the risk of death from pulmonary inflammation in Chinese intensive care unit patients

Abstract

ObjectiveThe objective of this research was to create a machine learning predictive model that could be easily interpreted in order to precisely determine the risk of premature death in patients receiving intensive care after pulmonary inflammation.MethodsIn this study, information from the China intensive care units (ICU) Open Source database was used to examine data from 2790 patients who had infections between January 2019 and December 2020. A 7:3 ratio was used to randomly assign the whole patient population to training and validation groups. This study used six machine learning techniques: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting tree, extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost), multilayer perceptron, and K-nearest neighbor. A cross-validation grid search method was used to search the parameters in each model. Eight metrics were used to assess the models’ performance: accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, area under the curve (AUC) value, Brier score, Jordon’s index, and calibration slope. The machine methods were ranked based on how well they performed in each of these metrics. The best-performing models were selected for interpretation using both the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) interpretable techniques.ResultsA subset of the study cohort’s patients (120/1668, or 7.19%) died in the hospital following screening for inclusion and exclusion criteria. Using a cross-validated grid search to evaluate the six machine learning techniques, XGBoost showed good discriminative ability, achieving an accuracy score of 0.889 (0.874–0.904), precision score of 0.871 (0.849–0.893), recall score of 0.913 (0.890–0.936), F1 score of 0.891 (0.876–0.906), and AUC of 0.956 (0.939–0.973). Additionally, XGBoost exhibited excellent performance with a Brier score of 0.050, Jordon index of 0.947, and calibration slope of 1.074. It was also possible to create an interactive internet page using the XGBoost model.ConclusionBy identifying patients at higher risk of early mortality, machine learning-based mortality risk prediction models have the potential to significantly improve patient care by directing clinical decision making and enabling early detection of survival and mortality issues in patients with pulmonary inflammation disease.