Interplay of financial market performance, macroeconomic indicators and business sentiment: a comprehensive study of the Turkish economy

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the long- and short-term relationships between the BIST100, RSC index, the EURO/TRY exchange rate, bank loans provided to the private sector, imports and exports, and nonperforming loans (NPLs) with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound, Johansen co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM) causality tests. Political developments, pandemics, conflicts between countries, trade chains and general economic and financial problems that have frequently occurred worldwide in recent years have significantly affected the Turkish economy as well as all other countries. Türkiye's economy is intricately linked with global financial markets, and understanding the dynamics between domestic macroeconomic variables and external financial indicators can provide insights into the country's economic resilience and vulnerabilities to external shocks. Design/methodology/approach Two distinct models are used in the analysis, with the Borsa Istanbul 100 (BIST100) Index and the Real Sector Confidence (RSC) Index serving as the dependent variables. This study examines the long- and short-term relationships between the BIST100, RSC index, the EURO/TRY exchange rate, bank loans provided to the private sector, imports and exports, and nonperforming loans (NPLs) with the ARDL bound, Johansen cointegration and VECM causality tests. The study uses monthly data spanning from December 31, 2002, to July 29, 2022, offering a comprehensive perspective on the dynamics of the Turkish economy. Findings The findings reveal significant long-run relationships between the BIST100 and the exchange rate, imports and exports. Short-run dynamics indicate the importance of changes in these variables, as well as NPLs and RSC, in affecting the BIST 100. The model captures the impact of economic indicators such as imports, NPLs and exports on RSC. In addition, it underscores a long-run equilibrium relationship, suggesting a responsive RSC to deviations. There is a strong positive relationship between BIST100 and the RSC. Causality tests reveal temporal relationships and causal links, with evidence of bidirectional causality for some variables, providing comprehensive insights into the short-term dynamics and adjustment mechanisms influencing RSC in the Turkish economic context. Practical implications Amidst global economic uncertainties and fluctuations, particularly in emerging markets such as Türkiye, understanding the relationships between financial market indicators and macroeconomic variables may help policymakers formulate effective monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, promoting sustainable growth and mitigating financial risks. In addition, these insights have practical implications for investors, regulators and other financial market participants seeking to make informed decisions in an increasingly interconnected and dynamic global economy. Originality/value This study uniquely examines a wide range of macroeconomic variables and financial indicators specific to Türkiye, including both traditional and nontraditional factors. This study also offers unprecedented insights into the unique characteristics and dynamics of the Turkish economy and provides valuable insights for businesses, investors and policymakers to consider Türkiye’s economic environment more effectively.