Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread

Abstract

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behavior, and disease spread. We studied how voluntary health-protective behavior and vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. We analyzed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in pandemic control.

Modeling the impact of the Omicron infection wave in Germany

“…Variations in contact behavior can have a significant impact on the results, as well. Slight reductions in contact, such as those brought about by autonomous changes in the behavior of the population [14], led to substantial reductions in outbreak size in the model (see Figs. 4-5).…”

“…After this date, only the daily vaccination data up to January 22 were updated and used in the results presented. High reported infection rates can lead to behavioral changes and contact reductions [14]. For illustrative purposes, we assumed a contact reduction of −20% relative to the original courses, as well as higher contact reductions for complementary analyses.…”

Emotional Contagion: Research on the Influencing Factors of Social Media Users' Negative Emotional Communication During the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Risk perception refers to an individual's perception and judgment of the attributes and severity of a particular situation and is used in psychology to measure the degree of psychological panic in individuals (Dönges et al, 2022). In the research of risk perception models, Slovic mentioned that: (i) risk perception is quantifiable and predictable; (ii) risk perception is dynamic in the time dimension; and (iii) risk perception is individually variable, with each individual assessing the same situation with different risk criteria (Paul and Ellen, 2006).…”

Describing a landscape we are yet discovering

“…This requires interdisciplinary collaboration; we need to study whether behavioral changes among the population have modified contact patterns (and thus the way diseases spread) and how these changes relate to (mis)information and fear (Dönges et al. 2022 ; Epstein et al. 2021 ; Teslya et al.…”