Interplay Between Fluid Intrusion and Aseismic Stress Perturbations in the Onset of Earthquake Swarms Following the 2020 Alex Extreme Rainstorm

Abstract

The 2020 Alex storm in southern France led to localized extreme rainfall exceeding 600 mm in less than 24 hr. In the 100 days following the storm, a series of small earthquakes swarm occurred beneath the Tinée valley, a region characterized by a low background deformation. To gain insight into the mechanisms controlling swarm evolution, we used an enhanced seismic catalog to detect 188 events. These events exhibited magnitudes comprised between −1.03 and 2.01, and 78 of them were relocated using relative locations at an average depth of 3–4 km. Additionally, we estimated the directions and velocities of seismicity migration. Our analyses reveal multiple episodes of hypocenter expansion and migration within a fluid‐saturated fault system. Observations provide evidence of a bi‐directional seismicity migration marked by dual velocities within a swarm. The northward seismicity migration aligns with velocities indicative of aseismic slip (∼130 m/hr), while the southward migration corresponds to velocities associated with fluid pressure diffusion (∼5 m/hr). This migration pattern underscores the interplay of multiple physical mechanisms in both triggering and driving earthquakes. A stress‐driven model based on rate‐and‐state friction successfully explains the overall evolution of observed seismicity, whereas a fluid‐driven model fails to reproduce the data. Our observations and models suggest that fluid pressure changes resulting from intense rainfall caused aseismic slip in the shallow portion of the crust. We hypothesize that aseismic deformation serves as the driving force for the earthquake swarms, coupled with the invasion of pressurized fluid due to diffusing rainfall.