International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects

Abstract

There are over 250,000 international treaties that aim to foster global cooperation. But are treaties actually helpful for addressing global challenges? This systematic field-wide evidence synthesis of 224 primary studies and meta-analysis of the higher-quality 82 studies finds treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects. The only exceptions are treaties governing international trade and finance, which consistently produced intended effects. We also found evidence that impactful treaties achieve their effects through socialization and normative processes rather than longer-term legal processes and that enforcement mechanisms are the only modifiable treaty design choice with the potential to improve the effectiveness of treaties governing environmental, human rights, humanitarian, maritime, and security policy domains. This evidence synthesis raises doubts about the value of international treaties that neither regulate trade or finance nor contain enforcement mechanisms.

Building a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty: Key elements

“…By contrast, the enforcement school suggests that states will comply only if the costs of non-compliance exceed the benefits (Downs et al, 1996). The response to non-compliance in this view requires sanctions or other incentives increasing the costs of non-compliance (Hoffman et al, 2022). One possible response is the withdrawal of benefits.…”

Between rules and resistance: moving public health emergency responses beyond fear, racism and greed

“…42 How, then, to assure that in future pandemics, travel restrictions are held to legal and ethical standards of necessity, proportionality and fairness? With recent empirical evidence suggesting that international treaties lacking in enforcement mechanisms do not achieve intended outcomes, 44 it is probable that holding countries accountable to such standards will require embedding effective sanctions for state noncompliance under the IHR. Yet, as the above analysis suggests, countries are unlikely to reach consensus on meaningful legal reforms of the IHR to incentivise science-based and equity-based travel restrictions.…”

Individualist moral principles and the expansion of the moral circle

“…This logic helps explain two paradoxes of human rights campaigns. First is what Hafner-Burton and Tsutsui (2005) call "the paradox of empty promises": Many states ratify human rights treaties but fail to respect them (see also Hoffman et al 2022). Second, research suggests that sanctions by Western governments frequently have backfiring effects: They often worsen human rights abuses rather than alleviate them, perhaps by enhancing coercive capacity or further incentivizing repression (Drury and Li 2006;Grauvogel and von Soest 2014;Drury 2009, 2010;Wood 2008).…”