International Trade and Investment Sanctions

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the theory of international economic sanctions and to provide estimates of the short-run economic impact on South Africa of externally imposed reductions of the imports and capital flows into that country. A macroeconomic picture of South Africa's "dependence" is drawn, and the economy's vulnerability in the short run is seen to be in its capacity to import, not in exports or capital flows. Trade and capital sanctions most clearly damage South Afnca's growth potential; the short-run impact is harder to quantify. A static linear programming model of the South African economy is constructed in an attempt at this quantification. This model estimates that small sanctions would have small impact—i.e., if imports were reduced by less than onefourth, GDP would be cut by only about one half as large a percentage as imports. Larger import reductions cause greater damage. If imports were to be cut in half, not only would GDP be seriously reduced but massive unemployment and relocation of white labor would occur.

Russie : un retour réussi sur la scène agricole mondiale. Des années 1990 à l’embargo

“…Ce dernier a eu, selon les travaux de R.C. Porter, un effet immédiat, puisque les flux commerciaux de produits agricoles et alimentaires ont été interrompus au détriment de l'UE, les producteurs ayant perdu un débouché important (graphique 8 sur le cas de la France) (Porter, 1979 ;Lindsay, 1986). L'embargo a pu ainsi contribuer à déstabiliser des filières comme celle de la viande de porc ou des produits laitiers.…”