International sources of the popularity of Russia’s president. Does the «rally around the flag» effect matter?

Abstract

The article focuses on the popularity of the President of the Russian Federation and the factors that influence the level of his support among the population. It is shown that most of the previous literature was devoted to the study of the influence of such determinants as macroeconomic indicators, the standard of living of citizens, the media, the use of political technologies, etc. The author notes that researchers have begun to mark a certain impact on the rating of national leaders of international events and interstate conflicts. The review of the literature showed that most researchers studied the factors of approval of the president's activities on the example of the United States. The author came to the conclusion that Russia is also a good laboratory for research and finding answers to a number of questions: Does the country's participation in military conflicts affect the popularity of the President of the Russian Federation? Does the low approval rating of the head of state lead to the initiation of a military conflict? The diversionary theory of war and the «rally around the flag» effect became the methodological basis of the article. Based on theoretical reflection, two working hypotheses were formulated: 1) a decrease in the approval rating of the president leads to an increase in the aggressiveness of foreign policy and the initiation of a military conflict; 2) Russia's participation in military conflicts leads to an increase in the popularity / approval of the activities of the President of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the article is an empirical test of these hypotheses. The author collected data on the rating of Russia’s president from 2000 to 2022 and conducted a regression analysis of time series. A comparative analysis of cases was used as a research method. As a result of statistical and other calculations, the author came to the conclusion that a decrease in the approval rating of the President of the Russian Federation does not lead to the initiation of military conflicts. The article substantiates the idea that the effect of the «rally around the flag» has matter in Russia, the participation of the armed forces in conflicts leads to an increase in the approval of the activities of the President of the Russian Federation.