International funding cost and heterogeneous mortgage interest-rate pass-through: a bank-level analysis

Abstract

This study examines the transmission of the cost-of-funds rates, domestically and internationally, to owner-occupied housing interest rates at the bank level for the period 2002(7)-2015(12) in Australia. Three main issues, cross-sectional dependence, parameter heterogeneity, and asymmetry, have been considered using the linear and nonlinear commonfactor Augmented Mean Group estimators. Significant unobservable coefficients in all estimates ascertain that unobserved common factors arising from both national and global shocks have a significant influence on mortgage rate transmission. The results of sizable heterogeneity and asymmetry, found in all estimates while controlling for cross-sectional correlations, highlight the substantial effect of the foreign-funds rate on long-run mortgage price-setting. We find a closer connection between mortgage interest rates and international funding cost; we have also confirmed a declining transmission of the policy rate after the 2008 global financial crisis. Keywords Asymmetry, heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, interest rate pass-through, bank mortgages, AMG models JEL Classifications G21, E43, E52, E58 of funds reflects the whole range of diverse liabilities (Fabbro & Hack 2011). Recent global extreme shocks have induced a higher level of credit risk, liquidity risk, and competition, making the cost of market funding more expensive (ECB 2013). These significant changes in world financial markets violate the underlying assumption of an alignment between policy rates and retail interest rates (Naraidoo & Raputsoane 2015). This study examines heterogeneity and asymmetry in the transmission of the cost-of-funds rates, domestically and internationally, to home-loan interest rates, controlling for crosssection dependence. Our country selection has been made owing to the importance of Australian housing and housing finance markets from the perspectives of an effective monetary policy and wealth effects on consumption (Jansen 2013; Robstad 2018). Australia is one of the top five world largest mortgage markets, just standing behind Denmark, Norway, and Netherlands, whose ratios of total mortgage credit to annual economy output (GDP) are greater than 100% (IMF 2017). Globally, Australia possesses the highest ratio of housing loans to total bank loans at 64%, a ratio that has continuously increased since the GFC (IMF 2017). Its mortgage market is highly oligopolistic: the dominance of four major banks constitutes over 85% of total market share (presented in Fig. B1, Appendix B). Only Australia, of these five, raises considerable mortgage funds from wholesale sources; the others source their funds mainly from domestic deposits. A significant portion, around 35%, of Australia's mortgage funding is sourced from world financial markets (Ralston & Davis 2011; Wilkins et al. 2016). This heavy reliance on foreign borrowings also poses a serious practical question for policy makers and banking regulators: housing finance markets with these characteristics are highly associated with ho...