International capital flows with safe assets accumulation

Abstract

PurposeThe author studies the role of safe assets accumulation in shaping the pattern of international capital flows.Design/methodology/approachThe author combines a theoretical model and the empirical analysis. The model is a two-country open economy, while the evidence is based on a fixed-effect regression on a panel of 19 countries of the eurozone.FindingsIn an open two-country economy, a positive productivity shock raises both mean and variance of wealth accumulation rate, then, leading to a greater holding of safe assets for risk-sharing motivation. Upon financial integration, the shock can induce the outflows of net total capital. The evidence of 19 eurozone countries confirms the theory and also uncovers that the safe assets (bonds) are the dominant driver of cross-border capital flows within the eurozone.Research limitations/implicationsThe model can be extended to account for the impact of safe assets on the economic growth, then, analyzes the role of safe assets within financial globalization. Taking into account the impact of safe assets on the open-economy economic growth can be the next step to approach the issue.Practical implicationsThe paper also provides important policy implication. Since a higher productivity level can raise the outflows of net total capital through the accumulation of foreign safe assets, an economy needs to increase its supply of safe asset along with upgrading its domestic productivity level. This combination is important for the long-run capital accumulation and economic growth of an economy with an increasing path of the productivity level.Originality/valueThe paper seeks a balance between theory and evidence on international capital flows. Moreover, the paper bridges the gap between the literature on international capital flows and the literature on safe assets. And the paper also focuses on the economies of the eurozone.

International Debts Flows

“…The paper belongs to the literature on the international capital flows (see a recent survey on Gourinchas and Rey, 2014). The net total capital inflows are driven by the different on the economic growth as predicted by neoclassical growth model (Alfaro et al, 2014), by the financial friction (Gourinchas and Jeanne, 2013), by the marginal product of capital (Caseli and Feyrer, 2007;Hung, 2020) or by the initial capital stock (Matsuyama, 2004). Our paper differs from the aforementioned papers by focusing on the pattern of debts capital flows.…”

“…At the financial integration, the low supply of safe assets at the world main issuer can result in the world secular stagnation (Caballero and Farhi, 2017). Financial integration can also lead to accumulation of foreign safe assets in the economy which experiences a positive productivity shock (Hung, 2020).…”