Internal Return Migration and the Northern Territory: New Migration Analysis for Understanding Population Prospects for Sparsely Populated Areas

Thurmer, James; Taylor, Andrew

doi:10.1007/s11113-020-09616-5

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Out‐migration rates also spike in preretirement and postretirement years, with the Northern Territory long struggling to retain people through the transition to retirement (Dyrting et al, 2020). Overall, these patterns highlight the Territory as a destination for young people to develop their career, with many choosing to leave after a small number of years (Carson et al, 2010; Thurmer & Taylor, 2021). This short duration stay accentuates population churn and, as with some other northern and sparsely populated areas, spotlights the importance of population retention, in addition to attraction (Dax & Fischer, 2018; Smith et al, 2016).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since 2012, population growth in the Northern Territory has slowed, stagnated and even been in decline at various points (Northern Territory Government, 2019). The policy challenge in the Northern Territory has long been, therefore, attracting new residents and retaining them in the population (Thurmer & Taylor, 2021). A total of 3515 respondents answered the question about the best aspects, while 3526 answered the one about the worst aspects.…”

Section: Research Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With globalisation and increasing wealth, migration research becomes the core for understanding the social and economic well‐being of people and nations. For rural areas, the challenge of sustaining population growth is by‐and‐large one of attracting new residents and retaining existing ones (Dyrting et al, 2020; Thurmer & Taylor, 2021), the combined result being reflected in net migration outcomes for towns and regions. This is because internal migration exchanges across rural areas, or between rural areas and nonrural areas, primarily determines population growth rates (McKenzie, 2014; Smith et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The application of machine learning to rural population migration research

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Shalley

Taylor

et al. 2023

Population Space and Place

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Many rural areas experience population stagnation or decline from out-migration with corresponding economic downturns. This is the case for the Northern Territory in Australia, a vast and sparsely populated jurisdiction. Its government has long sought to encourage stronger population growth but its population is young and highly transient, leading to high staff turn-overs and challenges for industries and government to attract families and skilled workers. Place-based factors such as job opportunities, access to essential services or environmental amenities influence satisfaction and migration decisions. The aim of this study was to understand why people might stay or move away through analysing responses to two open-text questions on the best and worst aspect of living in the Northern Territory. Over 3500 valid responses were analysed using machine learning-based unsupervised topic modelling which uncovered latent clusters. Forty-four percent of positive aspects were clustered into lifestyle factors, while negative aspects clustered around high living costs and crime. Some aspects, such as the weather and distance to other places were discussed as both positive and negative aspects. Topics discussed by respondents could be directly related to their intention to leave the Northern Territory, and also to specific individual's demographic characteristics providing insights for policies focused on attracting and retaining population. The use of unsupervised text mining in population research is rare and this study verifies its use to deliver objective and nuanced results generated from a large qualitative data set.

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