Internal Migration Across Italian Regions: Macroeconomic Determinants and Accommodating Potential for a Dualistic Economy

Abstract

SummaryWe provide econometric evidence that relative per capita GDP and relative unemployment rates are the main determinants of migration flows across Italian regions from 1970 to 2002. The empirical analysis is based on an accurate study of the dynamic properties of the series. In fact, we deal with the issues of non-stationarity and cointegration and estimate an error correction model in which both the short-and long-run dynamics are modelled at once. The regional unemployment rate is robustly inversely related with net regional migration rate, while per capita GDP is strongly positively linked with it. As far as the accommodating potential of internal migration to regional unbalances, we have detected very little room for such a role. Indeed, the degree of labour mobility across Italian regions cannot be active as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Abstract. We provide econometric evidence that relative per capita GDP and relative unemployment rates are the main determinants of migration flows across Italian regions from 1970 to 2002. The empirical analysis is based on an accurate study of the dynamic properties of the series. In fact, we deal with the issues of non-stationarity and cointegration and estimate an error correction model in which both the short-and long-run dynamics are modelled at once. The regional unemployment rate is robustly inversely related with net regional migration rate, while per capita GDP is strongly positively linked with it. As far as the accommodating potential of internal migration to regional unbalances, we have detected very little room for such a role. Indeed, the degree of labour mobility across Italian regions cannot be active as an effective equilibrating mechanism. KeywordsJEL Codes: C23, J61, R23.

Economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan

“…In contrast to Piras (2010) who estimated a robust inverse relation between unemployment and the migration rate, Daveri and Faini (1997) did not discover a significant influence of unemployment on mobility, while Fachin (2007) pointed to a weak impact. In Great Britain relative unemployment and wages have been identified to influence regional mobility but the related regional adjustment processes are apparently very slow (Pissarides and McMaster, 1990).…”

“…While in the United States internal movements have been identified to play an important role in reducing regional unemployment and wage differentials by shifting people from regions with low-productivity and high-unemployment to economically prospering ones, Fidrmuc (2004) did not find a corresponding pattern in East European countries. And even though research on internal migration in Italy indicates that relative per capita GDP and relative unemployment rates were the most important drivers for internal migration in that country between 1970 and 2002 (Piras, 2010), these movements were far too low to act as an equilibrating mechanism for regional imbalances. Concerning the role of unemployment in channeling interregional migration in Italy empirical results are controversial.…”

The more the merrier? Migration and convergence among European regions

“…Migration functions may also be based on a 2 region overlapping generations framework, where the share of people born in one region and moving to another is proportional to the wage or income di erential (Faini, Galli, Gennari, and Rossi, 1997). Thus, the propensity to emigrate is modelled to be dependent on di erences in the wage level, migration costs, and other determinants of utility such as amenities (Piras, 2010). Since the migration decision is based on the comparison of locations, relative values may be more relevant than absolute values.…”

Migration and Regional Unemployment in Italy

“…Note however that our time series are too short (12 years) to properly perform panel unit root tests (provincial level data on migration are available only from 1995). Nevertheless, we cannot disregard the evidence in favour of a unit root process for interregional migration and unemployment rates (at NUTS-1 and NUTS-2 level) over the period 1970-1995 provided by recent empirical studies on internal migration in Italy [25,32]. However, even admitting the possibility of non-stationarity, we rely on the analysis of the asymptotic and finite sample properties of GMM estimators in presence of unit roots and cointegration carried out by Pesaran [33].…”