Abstract. In a warming climate, periods with lower than average
precipitation will increase in frequency and intensity. During such periods,
known as meteorological droughts, the decline in annual runoff may be
proportionally larger than the corresponding decline in precipitation.
Reasons behind this exacerbation of runoff deficit during dry periods remain
largely unknown, and this challenges the predictability of when this
exacerbation will occur in the future and how intense it will be. In this
work, we tested the hypothesis that runoff deficit exacerbation during
droughts is a common feature across climates, driven by evaporation
enhancement. We relied on multidecadal records of streamflow and
precipitation for more than 200 catchment areas across various European climates,
which distinctively show the emergence of similar periods of exacerbated
runoff deficit identified in previous studies, i.e. runoff deficit on the
order of −20 % to −40 % less than what expected from precipitation
deficits. The magnitude of this exacerbation is two to three times larger for
basins located in dry regions than for basins in wet regions, and is
qualitatively correlated with an increase in annual evaporation during
droughts, in the order of +11 % and +33 % over basins characterized
by energy-limited and water-limited evaporation regimes, respectively. Thus,
enhanced atmospheric and vegetation demand for moisture during dry periods
induces a nonlinear precipitation-runoff relationship for low-flow regimes,
which results in an unexpectedly large decrease in runoff during periods of
already low water availability. Forecasting onset, magnitude, and duration
of these drops in runoff have paramount societal and ecological
implications, especially in a warming climate, given their supporting role
for safeguarding water, food, and energy. The outcome that water basins are
prone to this exacerbation of runoff deficit for various climates and
evaporation regimes makes further understanding of its patterns of
predictability an urgent priority for water-resource planning and management
in a warming and drier climate.