Interdicting International Drug Trafficking: a Network Approach for Coordinated and Targeted Interventions

Abstract

There is a relative dearth of literature on both the effects of cross-border interdictions and the impact of different types of interventions on international drug trafficking. This study identifies the main trafficking routes for cocaine and heroin, along with comparing the disruptive effects induced by targeted and non-coordinated interventions. It adopts a social network approach to identify the routes along which cocaine and heroin are trafficked, and then simulates the impact of different interdiction strategies on these two trafficking networks. The findings indicate that targeting countries based on their respective positions in the networks, as opposed to on the basis of the quantity of drugs exchanged, is more likely to disrupt drug flows. More specifically, concentrating law enforcement resources on countries with several incoming or outgoing trafficking connections, or those countries that mediate between producer, transit and consumer countries, would appear to be particularly effective in this regard. Interventions focused on specific trafficking routes are also likely to be effective if these routes have high edge betweenness centrality scores. This study contributes to extant understanding on the vulnerability of cocaine and heroin international trafficking networks, and, moreover, demonstrates that empirically-driven strategies are potentially more effective at interdicting international trafficking than non-strategic and non-coordinated interventions.

Drug Smuggling Seizures: The Effects of Reporting Consistency and Quality on the Observed Transnational Structure

“…The observed consistency is encouraging. Focusing interdiction at these junctions could have a greater disruptive effect on illicit transnational supply networks (Giommoni et al, 2021), particularly when targeting strategies that account for nation-to-nation border control asymmetry (Aziani et al, 2021).…”

“…A social network framework could be used to expose structural vulnerabilities in international drug smuggling operations, offering interdiction points for crime control efforts that aim to disrupt transhipment (e.g., Giommoni et al, 2021; Calderoni, 2012). If, that is, it is possible to overcome significant data challenges.…”

“…One common focus of interdiction research is the positioning of nations within the illicit supply network (e.g., Aziani et al, 2021; Boivin 2014b; Giommoni et al, 2021). Figure 1 raises several questions in this regard.…”

“…These factors will intersect with the logistics of monitoring borders set in different terrains leading to variable detection capacity (Fathurrohman & Bichler, 2021) affecting both raw seizure counts and relative detection rates. Second, since illegal supply networks coopt licit transportation systems, it is important to model local and macro incremental changes in transport systems, as well as large stochastic shocks, because these changes will trigger evolutionary shifts in detected smuggling activity (extrapolating from Giommoni et al, 2021). Dynamic modeling techniques would advance this line of inquiry.…”

“…Tracing the movement of illicit drugs and precursor chemicals between nations offers an opportunity to understand the structure of transnational supply networks (e.g., Boivin, 2014a; 2014b; Giommoni, Berlusconi, & Aziani, 2021). Specifically, investigating transit routes and smuggling techniques can expose how asymmetric transportation and border control capabilities are exploited (e.g., Aziani, Berlusconi, & Giommoni, 2021; Caulkins, Burnett, & Leslie, 2009; Fathurrohman & Bichler, 2021).…”