Interdecadal Variations in ENSO Influences on Northwest Pacific–East Asian Early Summertime Climate Simulated in CMIP5 Models

Hu, Kaiming; Huang, Gang; Zheng, Xiao‐Tong; Xie, Shang‐Ping; Qü, Xia; Du, Yan; Lin, Liu

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00268.1

Cited by 68 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…16). A common bias of CMIP5 models is that the El Niño-induced IO warming and AAC terminate 1-2 months too early and do not persist through summer as in observations Hu et al, 2014). This bias of weak summer persistence might be due to a weak thermocline feedback of slow-propagating Rossby waves over the southwest IO-a mechanism that contributes to the persistence of the IPOC mode .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

et al. 2016

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ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Niño summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled oceanatmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Niño stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

et al. 2016

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“…This circulation causes SST warming withdraw to the west [ Figure 7; also refer to ) and (Huang et al, 2010)]. The westward extension of the anti-cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the NWP seems related to the ENSO structure that is displaced westward compared to observations in the equatorial region (Hu et al 2013).…”

Section: Atmospheric Forcing Over the Southeast Tiomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Xie et al, 2009;Huang et al, 2010). The formation of the NWP anti-cyclonic circulation and its relationship to NIO warming in CMIP5 models are investigated in a companion study (Hu et al, 2013).…”

Section: Summary Summary Summary Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Indian Ocean Variability in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Basin Mode

Xie

Yang

et al. 2013

Journal of Climate

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This study evaluates the simulation of the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and relevant physical processes in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Historical runs from 20 CMIP5 models are available for the analysis. They reproduce the IOB mode and its close relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Half of the models capture key IOB processes: a downwelling oceanic Rossby wave in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precedes the IOB development in boreal fall and triggers an antisymmetric wind anomaly pattern across the equator in the following spring. The anomalous wind pattern induces a second warming in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) through summer and sustains anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northwest Pacific by radiating a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave. The second warming in the NIO is indicative of ocean–atmosphere interaction in the interior TIO. More than half of the models display a double peak in NIO warming, as observed following El Niño, while the rest show only one winter peak. The intermodel diversity in the characteristics of the IOB mode seems related to the thermocline adjustment in the south TIO to ENSO-induced wind variations. Almost all the models show multidecadal variations in IOB variance, possibly modulated by ENSO.

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“…Cai et al (2015) showed that mean state change of the tropical Pacific will cause an increased frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events and an eastward shift of the ENSO rainfall teleconnections with a likely increased intensity. The CMIP5 models project a strengthening ENSO effect on the northwest Pacific and East Asia summer climate (Hu et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Niño Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model

Endo¹

2016

SOLA

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A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is used to project future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Niño at the end of the 21st century. In the future climate projections, hypothetical sea surface temperature (SST) is assumed where the interannual variability of SST remains same as in the present climate. The annual maximum 1-day precipitation total (R1d) over the western North Pacific is largely associated with tropical cyclone activity and positively correlated to the Niño3.4 SST anomalies. It is found that climatological mean R1d will only modestly increase in the western North Pacific in the future, but interannual variability of R1d will largely increase compared to the present due to enhanced association with El Niño. This implies an increasing risk of heavier rainfall events by global warming around the western North Pacific countries.(Citation: Kitoh, A., and H. Endo, 2016: Future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Niño projected by a global 20-km mesh atmospheric model. SOLA, 12A, 1−6,

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Interdecadal Variations in ENSO Influences on Northwest Pacific–East Asian Early Summertime Climate Simulated in CMIP5 Models

Abstract: The present study investigates interdecadal modulations of the El Niño-Southern

Cited by 68 publications

References 43 publications

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review

Indian Ocean Variability in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Basin Mode

Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Niño Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model

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