Interdecadal Linkages Between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Interhemispheric Air Mass Oscillation and Their Possible Connections with East Asian Monsoon

Abstract

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) recently emerged in the literature as a robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere climate variability. Many studies reported that the relationships between PDO and East Asian monsoon (EAM) and climate variability in China are significant. Their possible mechanisms are, however, still unclear. Using the observational NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and Chinese station data during the period of 1969–2008, this study investigates the interdecadal relationship between Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and interhemispheric air mass imbalance or oscillation (IHO) between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The possible connection of PDO and IHO with both East Asian monsoon and climate variability in China are also assessed. It is found that the interdecadal components (11∼38 years) of PDO, IHO, and EAM contribute large variance to low frequency variations, and they are well‐matched with each other on (inter) decadal timescale. In particular, their negative phases mainly appeared in the 1970 s and late 1990 s, while positive phase in period from 1980 s to mid 1990 s. Decadal change of global mean air columnar temperature may be the key factor for the notable difference between PDO and IHO from mid 1970 s to mid 1990 s. The spatial distributions of PDO and IHO associated surface air temperature and surface pressure anomalies exhibit high similarity and large scale characteristics, indicative of their intimate linkage with air mass redistribution over the global domain especially over 30°S–50°N. The PDO associated columnar integral of velocity potential anomalies that maintain the air mass redistribution show a dipole pattern with air mass flux emanating mainly from the eastern hemisphere to the Pacific regions in positive PDO phase. This contributes to hemispherical and land‐sea mass exchange and redistribution, and also leads to the decadal displacement of both upward and downward branch of Walker circulation. In positive phase of PDO, an anomalous anticyclone is found in the Mongolian region in both boreal summer and winter seasons, inducing significant anomalous northerlies in the eastern China, and hence intensifying (weakening) the east Asian winter (summer) monsoon. Consequently, the interdecadal components of temperature and precipitation at most stations in east China are simultaneously correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation index significantly.

A method for predicting the uncompleted climate transition process

“…Data availability. We analyzed the transition process of the PDO using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/ Timeseries/Data/pdo.long.data (last access: October 2020; Mantua et al, 1997).…”

“…In this paper, three ideal time sequences are tested to study the prediction method. The prediction method is also applied to study the climate transition process of the PDO, which is an important signal that reveals climatic variability on the decadal timescale (Mantua et al, 1997;Barnett et al, 1999;Zhang et al, 1997;Yang et al, 2004). Previous studies (Lu et al, 2013;Trenberth and Hurrell, 1994) have indicated that there have been many abrupt changes in the PDO over the past 100 years.…”

Warming Tropical Indian Ocean Wets the Tibetan Plateau

“…However, attribution of these observed precipitation trends to global warming is challenging, given the interference of internal decadal-to-multi-decadal variations in the climate system such as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and/or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g., Cai et al, 2022;Du et al, 2022;F. Liu et al, 2021;Gu et al, 2023;Han et al, 2016;Lu et al, 2013;T. Li et al, 2021).…”

“…In eastern China, the northern part becomes drier, while the southern part becomes wetter in recent decades (e.g., C. Wang et al., 2012; M. Li et al., 2022; Pei et al., 2015). However, attribution of these observed precipitation trends to global warming is challenging, given the interference of internal decadal‐to‐multi‐decadal variations in the climate system such as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and/or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (e.g., Cai et al., 2022; Du et al., 2022; F. Liu et al., 2021; Gu et al., 2023; Han et al., 2016; Lu et al., 2013; T. Li et al., 2021). The long‐term land use changes and the limited length of the instrumental record, among other factors, can also influence the attribution (e.g., D. Li et al., 2017; Du et al., 2022; Roxy et al., 2015; Turner & Annamalai, 2012; Yan et al., 2020).…”