Intercity Mode Choice Modelling: Considering the Intracity Transport Systems with Application to the Jakarta-Bandung Corridor

Intercity roads, rail networks and air transport in Java, Indonesia, have suffered greatly due to the congestion of goods and passenger transport. The plan to build a 730 kilometer high-speed rail (HSR) route from Jakarta, the state capital, to Surabaya, the capital of East Java Province, has been discussed in the public sphere for years. The Government of Indonesia (GOI) plans to connect these two cities by HSR to supplement the alternatives, such as conventional rail, air and toll roads. The HSR service is expected to reduce the existing average intercity train travel time from nine hours to five hours, or even to three depending on the maximum design speed. Currently, door-to-door air travel may take five hours. Another goal of the Jakarta-Surabaya HSR is to improve accessibility between major cities in Java, reduce congestion between them, and reduce air pollution, accidents and energy consumption along the transport corridor. The purpose of this study is to estimate the number of passengers from existing modes of transportation (e.g. road, rail and air) who would be willing to change their choice of mode to the planned high-speed trains. The data for the study are based on stated choice questions posed to respondents, in which the differences in attributes such as travel time and cost; service frequency or headway; and accessibility, such as the distance and cost to reach the stations, are the main factors influencing switching behavior to the new HSR services. The chosen model is the MNL III model, with 45.36% accuracy and 0.128 pseudo R-square. By using the Multinomial Logit model (MNL), the study reveals that the most important variable is travel time, followed by frequency and cost. The MNL model is also used to estimate the initial HSR ridership to produce the demand forecast along the planning horizon.

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 68%

Demand Forecast of Jakarta-Surabaya High Speed Rail based on Stated Preference Method

Lubis¹,

Pantas²,

Farda³

2019

“…Passengers on the Jakarta-Bandung trip are less sensitive to ticket fare, while the opposite is true for Bandung-Jakarta. This finding is similar to that of previous research by Barus et al (2016). Moreover, car users with more than one passenger are less interested in using HST since traveling in a large group by car is still easier and cheaper than using HST, although there is the added uncertainty of travel time due to the unpredictability of traffic conditions.…”

Section: Demand Analysissupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The stakeholder needs to consider the travel time, level of comfort, and accessibility in order to define the optimum price (Avineri & Bovy, 2008;Barus et al, 2016). The train will take approximately 50 minutes from Jakarta (Halim) to Bandung (Gedebage), with two intermediate stops in Karawang and Walini.…”

Section: High-speed Trainmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Characteristics of Potential Passengers of an Indonesian High-Speed Train (Case Study: Jakarta-–Bandung)

Kusuma¹,

Tinumbia

Bakdirespati

2017

Indonesia is one of the largest economics compared to others in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with a population of 240 million in 2016. Most of the country's economic and service-related activities are located on the island of Java, which is home to 50% of the population. A good and reliable transport infrastructure is therefore critical to ensuring that the movement of both passengers and goods is efficient, fast, reliable, and safe. The Indonesian government has initiated a High-Speed Train (HST) service to connect Jakarta and Surabaya, two big cities in the west and east of Java, respectively, in order to improve mobility and connectivity on Java. The first phase of the HST project is planned to connect Jakarta and Bandung. This study aims to understand the travel characteristics of potential HST passengers, which is important for predicting demand for the HST. The study conducts roadside interviews using a stated preference methodology for several passenger transport modes serving the Jakarta-Bandung route, namely the private car, 10-seater bus (shuttle), coach, and conventional rail. The survey asks respondents about their potential for shifting from their current transit mode to HST. The HST stations will be located in Halim (Jakarta) and Gedebage (Bandung). The study finds that most of the respondents have good economic welfare. A total of 64% of the respondents agreed that they would pay an HST ticket price of between 200,000 and 300,000 rupiahs to save 90 minutes' travel time. Furthermore, the average amount paid to use a passenger car on the same trip is 200,000 rupiahs, which is slightly higher than the amount paid by a train passenger (Rp. 150,000). This finding demonstrates that the passenger traffic vehicle capitulates the benefit of choosing HST in comparison with the existing transport modes. It should also be noted that there is greater uncertainty with regard to traffic conditions for road traffic in comparison to that faced by railway passengers. In more detail, a sensitivity analysis indicates that passengers traveling from Jakarta could be more easily shifted to the HST than could passengers traveling from Bandung. The fact that those in Jakarta indicate a greater preference to shift to a faster transport mode than those in Bandung indicates that people in Jakarta place a higher value on time. This information is also useful for operational policy, including ticket price differentiation based on travel time period and travel origin-destination.

“…A logistic regression model is an appropriate procedure for describing the effect of several numbers of categorical or continuous explanatory variables on the probability of occurrences of a dichotomous outcome variable (Peng et al, 2002). Logistic regression has been applied in many different areas, such as in medicine (Yusuff et al, 2012;Zangmo & Tiensuwan, 2018), engineering (Barus et al, 2016), and social sciences (Ramosacaj et al, 2015). However, most follow-up studies have more than one type of event; thus, the traditional logistic model is no longer suitable for use.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multistage Logistic Regression Model for Analyzing Survival from Colorectal Cancer

Ahmad¹,

Zain²,

Aziz³

2018

Colorectal cancer, which is also known as bowel cancer, colon cancer, or rectal cancer, is the third most common cancer worldwide, and the second most common in Malaysia. In most situations, the tumor/cancer may return even after the tumor removal. The impact of the type of surgery performed for tumor removal on the occurrence of a new tumor and the impact of a patient's state at previous follow-up on the occurrence of a new tumor in the next follow-up are of interest. Thus, the probability of surviving with no tumor recurrence, the probability of surviving but with tumor recurrence, and the probability of not surviving can be obtained. A multistage logistic regression, which was designed for longitudinal data, was used. Data from 161 colorectal cancer patients who experienced tumor removal through surgery and were followed-up for two years were used in this study. The results showed that in the first year after tumor removal surgery, regardless of whether the patients had undergone elective or emergency surgery, the chance of patient survival with no tumor was approximately five times higher than the chance of dying; meanwhile, the chance of dying was approximately three times higher than the chance of developing a new tumor. Similar results have also been obtained for a period of 2 years after the tumor removal surgery.