Interannual variations in snowpack in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem

Selkowitz, D.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Reardon, Blase A.

doi:10.1002/hyp.1234

Cited by 41 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Instrumental weather data indicate a trend of increasing temperature but no apparent long-term trend in snowpack. It appears that the temperature threshold for maintaining glaciers was exceeded sometime between 1850 and the 1920s (Selkowitz et al, 2002). This threshold corresponds with the data on glaciers elsewhere on Earth-almost all mountain glaciers are receding as global temperatures increase (IPCC, 2001b).…”

Section: Cycles and Thresholds In Biotic And Abiotic Components Of Nosupporting

confidence: 71%

“…The PDO is negatively correlated with winter precipitation (snow) (Peterson et al, 2002;Selkowitz et al, 2002) (Fig. 7), and snowpack dynamics are critical to glacier mass balance, with more rapid recession during the two warm PDO regimes of the 20th century (Bitz and Battisti, 1999;Key et al, 2002;J.…”

Section: Cycles and Thresholds In Biotic And Abiotic Components Of Nomentioning

confidence: 99%

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Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Burkett

Wilcox

Stottlemyer

et al. 2005

Ecological Complexity

237

177

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Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Section: Cycles and Thresholds In Biotic And Abiotic Components Of Nosupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Cycles and Thresholds In Biotic And Abiotic Components Of Nomentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Burkett

Wilcox

Stottlemyer

et al. 2005

Ecological Complexity

237

177

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show abstract

“…Western North America (WNA) surface air temperatures have risen at an overall mean rate of 0.1 -0.2°C per decade since 1950, with more pronounced warming observed during the winter and spring seasons (Karl et al, 1993;Lettenmaier et al, 1994;Mote et al, 2005;Vincent et al, 1999). As a result, widespread snowpack declines (Brown and Braaten, 1998;Hamlet et al, 2005;Mote, 2003;Mote et al, 2005;Selkowitz et al, 2002), higher rain:snow ratios (Knowles et al, 2006), shorter snow accumulation seasons, and more frequent winter melt periods Nash and Gleick, 1991;Shabbar and Bonsal, 2003) have been observed. Each of these changes can result in decreased streamflow volume and changes to runoff quantity and timing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Spring Runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta II: Runoff Change Projections using Future Scenarios

Larson¹,

Byrne²,

Johnson³

et al. 2011

Canadian Water Resources Journal

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Abstract:In Part I of this two-part study, the Simulated Grid microclimate model (SIMGRID) was modified and the new version validated on the St. Mary River watershed in northern Montana, using historical data. In Part II, future climate change scenarios are used to estimate spring streamflow (Q S ) for the 1961-2099 period. Relative to the base period , the model indicates median year Q S decline of 3 -8% by the 2020s, 8 -17% by the 2050s, and 15 -27% by the 2080s. Mean onset of the spring pulse is projected to occur in early March or late February for the 2080s, 36 to 50 days earlier than for the 1961-1990 reference period. Model results generally indicate increased precipitation, but spring runoff volumes will decrease substantially, because the higher rain:snow ratio and shorter accumulation period will decrease snowpack volume. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the increased winter temperature resulting from anthropogenically-induced climate change, will result in shorter winters, reduced snowpack volume, and earlier spring snowmelt and runoff onset, resulting in substantial reductions in spring discharge.Résumé: Dans la Partie I de la présente étude en deux parties, le modèle de microclimats alpin « SIMGRID » a été modifié et la nouvelle version a été validée sur le bassin versant de la rivière St. Mary dans le nord du Montana, en utilisant des données historiques. Dans la Partie II, les scénarios de changements climatiques futurs ont été utilisés pour estimer l'écoulement fluvial au printemps (Q S ) pour la période de 1961 à 2099. Par rapport à la période de base , le modèle indique une diminution de la médiane de Q S de 3 à 8 % d'ici les années 2020, de 8 à 17 % d'ici les années 2050 et de 15 à 27 % d'ici les années 2080. En moyenne, le début de l'écoulement de printemps est prévu pour fin février ou début mars au cours des années 2080, c'est-à-dire de 36 à 50 jours plus tôt que pendant la période de référence . Malgré une prévision d'augmentation des précipitations, les modèles indiquent également une diminution considérable du volume d'écoulement printanier causé par une hausse du ratio pluie/ neige et par la diminution de la période d'accumulation entrainant la diminution du volume du manteau

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“…Snowpack data for Flattop Mountain also showed no consistent pattern since 1961. Regionally, however, there is a trend toward earlier snow melt since 1950 (Selkowitz et al 2002). Breeding phenology of amphibians in mountainous areas is controlled largely by timing of snow melt (Corn and Muths 2002;Corn 2003); therefore, a recent trend toward earlier breeding by B. boreas in the region is likely.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of boreal toad populations in relation to estimated UV-B dose in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Hossack¹,

Diamond²,

Corn³

2006

Can. J. Zool.

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A recent increase in ultraviolet B radiation is one hypothesis advanced to explain suspected or documented declines of the boreal toad (Bufo boreas Baird and Girard, 1852) across much of the western USA, where some experiments have shown ambient UV-B can reduce embryo survival. We examined B. boreas occupancy relative to daily UV-B dose at 172 potential breeding sites in Glacier National Park, Montana, to assess whether UV-B limits the distribution of toads. Dose estimates were based on ground-level UV-B data and the effects of elevation, local topographic and vegetative features, and attenuation in the water column. We also examined temporal trends in surface UV-B and spring snowpack to determine whether populations are likely to have experienced increased UV-B exposure in recent decades. We found no support for the hypothesis that UV-B limits the distribution of populations in the park, even when we analyzed high-elevation ponds separately. Instead, toads were more likely to breed in water bodies with higher estimated UV-B doses. The lack of a detectable trend in surface UV-B since 1979, combined with earlier snow melt in the region and increasing forest density at high elevations, suggests B. boreas embryos and larvae likely have not experienced increased UV-B.RCsumk : L'augmentation rCcente de le rayonnement ultraviolet B est l'une des hypothbses avanc6es pour expliquer les dCclins apprChendCs ou observCs du crapaud de l'ouest (Bufo boreas Baird et Girard, 1852) dans presque tout l'ouest des 8.-u.; certaines expCriences y ont d'ailleurs dCmontrC que 1'UV-B ambiant peut rCduire la survie des embryons. Nous avons dCterminC l'occupation du territoire par B. boreas en fonction des doses journalibres d'UV-B B 172 sites potentiels de reproduction dans le parc national Glacier, Montana, afin d'kvaluer si 1'UV-B limite la rkpartition des crapauds. Les estimations du dosage ont 6tC basCes sur des mesures d'UV-B au niveau du sol et sur les effets de l'altitude, de la topographie locale, des caract6ristiques de la v6g6tation et de l'att6nuation dans la colonne d'eau. Nous avons aussi examink les variations temporelles de 1'UV-B en surface, ainsi que la couche de neige au printemps de savoir si les populations ont pu Ctre soumises B des expositions accrues au cours des dernikres dkcennies. Nous n'avons rien trouvC qui appuie l'hypothbse selon laquelle 1'UV-B limite la rCpartition de la population dans le parc, mCme lorsque nous analysons les donnCes sur les Ctangs de haute altitude s6parCment. Au contraire, les crapauds sont plus susceptibles de se reproduire dans les masses d'eau qui re~oivent les doses estimCes d'UV-B les plus fortes. L'absence de tendance d6celable de 1'UV-B en surface depuis 1979, combinCe B une fonte des neiges plus pr6coce dans la region et une densit6 accrue des forCts en haute altitude, laisse croire que les embryons et les larves de B. boreas n'ont vraisemblablement pas Ct C exposCs B une augmentation de 1'UV-B.[Traduit par la RCdaction]

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Interannual variations in snowpack in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem

Cited by 41 publications

References 21 publications

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Spring Runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta II: Runoff Change Projections using Future Scenarios

Distribution of boreal toad populations in relation to estimated UV-B dose in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

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