Interannual variation in meteorologically adjusted ozone levels in the eastern United States: A comparison of two approaches

Zheng, Junyu; Swall, Jenise L.; Cox, W. Miles; Davis, Joseph E.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.09.010

Cited by 46 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…A marked increase in RH within the MMA during September is consistent with the increase in O 3 observed as reported by Lee et al (2014). Over the Midwestern and (Zheng et al, 2007). The annual variability in O 3 within the MMA is strongly coupled to the economic conditions (GDP) in Mexico.…”

Section: Origin Of the O 3 Annual Cycles Within The Mmasupporting

confidence: 72%

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Observed trends in ground-level O3 in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

2017

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Abstract. Here, we present an assessment of long-term trends in O 3 and odd oxygen (O 3 + NO 2 ) at the industrial Monterrey metropolitan area (MMA) in NE Mexico. Diurnal amplitudes in O x (AV d ) are used as a proxy for net O 3 production, which is influenced by the NO 2 photolysis rate. No significant differences in the AV d are observed between weekends and weekdays, although the largest AV d values are observed at sites downwind of industrial areas. The highest O 3 mixing ratios are observed in spring, with minimum values in winter. The largest annual variations in O 3 are typically observed downwind of the MMA, with the lowest variations generally recorded in highly populated areas and close to industrial areas. A wind sector analysis of mixing ratios of O 3 precursors revealed that the dominant sources of emissions are located in the industrial regions within the MMA and surrounding area. Significant increasing trends in O 3 in spring, summer, and autumn are observed depending on site location, with trends in annual averages ranging between 0.19 and 0

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Section: Origin Of the O 3 Annual Cycles Within The Mmasupporting

confidence: 72%

“…The normalised daily cycles were constructed by subtracting daily averages from hourly averages. (Camalier et al, 2007;Zheng et al, 2007). Annual average cycles for those meteorological variables.…”

Section: Wind Occurrence At the Mmamentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed trends in ground-level O3 in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

2017

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“…Inter-annual fluctuations over the past decade or so are driven by the five main driving mechanisms: (1) impact of better regulation and anti-pollution measures (EPA, 2010(EPA, , 2012Oltmans et al, 2013), (2) meteorological fluctuations (Thompson et al, 2001;Camalier et al, 2007;Zheng et al, 2007;Davis et al, 2011), (3) socio-economic changes (e.g., recession; Friedlingstein et al, 2010;Granados et al, 2012;Castellanos and Folkert Boersma, 2012), (4) increase of background levels due to intercontinental transport (Cooper, , 2012, and (5) inter-annual variability of stratospherictropospheric exchanges Lin et al, 2012a, b). Following Cooper et al (2010Cooper et al ( , 2012 and Vautard et al (2006), a general trend analysis is computed by using the percentiles to take into account the changes of the full distribution through time.…”

Section: Decadal Trends and Inter-annual Fluctuations For Ozone And Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

Robichaud

Ménard

2014

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Multi-year objective analyses (OA) on a high spatiotemporal resolution for the warm season period (1 May to 31 October) for ground-level ozone and for fine particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM 2.5 )) are presented. The OA used in this study combines model outputs from the Canadian air quality forecast suite with US and Canadian observations from various air quality surface monitoring networks. The analyses are based on an optimal interpolation (OI) with capabilities for adaptive error statistics for ozone and PM 2.5 and an explicit bias correction scheme for the PM 2.5 analyses. The estimation of error statistics has been computed using a modified version of the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (H-L) method. The error statistics are "tuned" using a χ 2 (chi-square) diagnostic, a semiempirical procedure that provides significantly better verification than without tuning. Successful cross-validation experiments were performed with an OA setup using 90 % of data observations to build the objective analyses and with the remainder left out as an independent set of data for verification purposes. Furthermore, comparisons with other external sources of information (global models and PM 2.5 satellite surface-derived or ground-based measurements) show reasonable agreement. The multi-year analyses obtained provide relatively high precision with an absolute yearly averaged systematic error of less than 0.6 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 0.7 µg m −3 (micrograms per cubic meter) for ozone and PM 2.5 , respectively, and a random error generally less than 9 ppbv for ozone and under 12 µg m −3 for PM 2.5 . This paper focuses on two applications: (1) presenting longterm averages of OA and analysis increments as a form of summer climatology; and (2) analyzing long-term (decadal) trends and inter-annual fluctuations using OA outputs. The results show that high percentiles of ozone and PM 2.5 were both following a general decreasing trend in North America, with the eastern part of the United States showing the most widespread decrease, likely due to more effective pollution controls. Some locations, however, exhibited an increasing trend in the mean ozone and PM 2.5 , such as the northwestern part of North America (northwest US and Alberta). Conversely, the low percentiles are generally rising for ozone, which may be linked to the intercontinental transport of increased emissions from emerging countries. After removing the decadal trend, the inter-annual fluctuations of the high percentiles are largely explained by the temperature fluctuations for ozone and to a lesser extent by precipitation fluctuations for PM 2.5 . More interesting is the economic short-term change (as expressed by the variation of the US gross domestic product growth rate), which explains 37 % of the total variance of inter-annual fluctuations of PM 2.5 and 15 % in the case of ozone.

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“…A large number of statistical studies have related air quality to local meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, or solar radiation, often with the goal of removing the effect of interannual meteorological variability in the interpretation of air quality trends (Zheng et al, 2007;Bloomfield et al, 1996;Thomspon et al, 2001;Camalier et al, 2007;Gégo et al, 2007). Ordóñez et al (2005) found that the number of days since the last frontal passage was a significant predictor of ozone air quality in Switzerland.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

2008

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Abstract. We show that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across eastern North America at 40°–50° N (the southern climatological storm track) is a strong predictor of stagnation and ozone pollution days in the eastern US. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, going back to 1948, shows a significant long-term decline in the number of summertime mid-latitude cyclones in that track starting in 1980 (−0.15 a−1). The more recent but shorter NCEP/DOE Reanalysis (1979–2006) shows similar interannual variability in cyclone frequency but no significant long-term trend. Analysis of NOAA daily weather maps for 1980–2006 supports the trend detected in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. A GISS general circulation model (GCM) simulation including historical forcing by greenhouse gases reproduces this decreasing cyclone trend starting in 1980. Such a long-term decrease in mid-latitude cyclone frequency over the 1980–2006 period may have offset by half the ozone air quality gains in the northeastern US from reductions in anthropogenic emissions. We find that if mid-latitude cyclone frequency had not declined, the northeastern US would have been largely compliant with the ozone air quality standard by 2001. Mid-latitude cyclone frequency is expected to decrease further over the coming decades in response to greenhouse warming and this will necessitate deeper emission reductions to achieve a given air quality goal.

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Interannual variation in meteorologically adjusted ozone levels in the eastern United States: A comparison of two approaches

Cited by 46 publications

References 10 publications

Observed trends in ground-level O<sub>3</sub> in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

Observed trends in ground-level O<sub>3</sub> in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

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Interannual variation in meteorologically adjusted ozone levels in the eastern United States: A comparison of two approaches

Cited by 46 publications

References 10 publications

Observed trends in ground-level O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

Observed trends in ground-level O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

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Observed trends in ground-level O<sub>3</sub> in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

Observed trends in ground-level O<sub>3</sub> in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993–2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models