Interactions between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, El Niño/La Niña, and the PNA in winter Mississippi Valley stream flow

Rogers, Jeffrey C.; Coleman, Jill S. M.

doi:10.1029/2003gl017216

Cited by 93 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…2). Decadal-scale variations in ␦ 18 O values and differences between earlywood and latewood compositions most likely reflect systematic variations in seasonal temperature and sources of normal precipitation that are controlled by larger scale climate modes, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or the North Atlantic Oscillation (13)(14)(15)(16). To detect isotopic anomalies in the time series, we used a 1-year autoregression model (AR-1; Box-Jenkins model) to remove the potential effects of short-term autocorrelation in the time series that may mask meaningful trends (http:͞͞ www.agu.org͞eos elec͞96097e.html), and evaluated the calculated residuals (residual ϭ observed Ϫ model predicted values) (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity

Miller¹,

Mora²,

Grissino-Mayer

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

182

188

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity

Miller¹,

Mora²,

Grissino-Mayer

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

182

188

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“…Warm (cold) AMO periods are generally linked to an increase (decrease) in Midwestern drought frequency, particularly when combined with a PDO negative (positive) state (McCabe et al, 2004). Rogers and Coleman (2003) find winter/early spring streamflow over the upper Mississippi Valley during an AMO warm phase significantly lower than the cold phase; however, the signal in the lower Mississippi and Ohio River basins weakens and modifies in accordance with Pacific conditions (i.e. PNA and ENSO).…”

Section: Teleconnection Influencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric aspects of the 2008 Midwest floods: a repeat of 1993?

Coleman

Budikova

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper identifies and documents the major large-scale atmospheric circulation characteristics that preceded and facilitated the devastating floods across the Midwestern United States along the upper Mississippi, Missouri, and Wabash River basins in the late spring/early summer of 2008. These circulation features were also placed in the context of the 1993 floods that occurred within a similar temporal and spatial domain. This process included investigating the relationship between various atmospheric conditions and the timing of flood-producing rainfall events at monthly and sub-monthly timescales. Unlike in 1993, the 2008 flood event took place 1 month earlier in the year (May), lasted over a much shorter time period, and extended eastwards into Indiana. The comparison confirmed much previous work regarding the factors associated with Midwest flooding during the early warm-season and revealed the possible influence of the state of the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on warm-season flooding across the Midwest. Both the 2008 and 1993 events were preceded by an NAO positive phase; the pattern switched phase about 2 months before the onset of the flooding and remained negative for the duration of the floods. While the major atmospheric conditions known to be associated with major flooding across the Midwest were present in 2008 (e.g. a strong Great Plains low-level jet), the level of their development, persistence, and geographic orientation/position was very distinct from those observed in 1993. These conditions were also embedded in different state of the remote hemispheric circulation over the Pacific North American region. Together, these variations contributed to the 2008 Midwest floods that occurred earlier in the warm season, were shorter-lived, and had an impact on a slightly different geographic area.

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“…For example, one of the characteristics of the Pacific North American (PNA) oscillation is its anomaly center of sea level pressure straddling the southeastern part of the US (Feldstein 2002;Barnston and Livezey 1987;Wallace and Gutzler 1981). The PNA has also been documented to have a major influence in the region of the Ohio River Valley (Coleman and Rogers 2003) and the Mississippi River region (Roger and Coleman 2003). Also, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) influences the precipitation variability in North America (McCabe et al 2004;Mantua and Hare 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The boreal spring variability of the Intra-Americas low-level jet and its relation with precipitation and tornadoes in the eastern United States

Munoz

Enfield

2009

Clim Dyn

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The Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) low-level jet has been studied mainly for the summer and winter seasons. In contrast, spring conditions have been studied less. Here we analyze the boreal spring variability of the IAS low-level jet (IA-LLJ) and its relation with precipitation and tornadic activity in the region of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio River basins (MORB). The main mode of variability of the spring IA-LLJ is obtained from a combined principal component analysis of zonal and meridional winds at 925-hPa. The first empirical orthogonal function of the IA-LLJ is a strengthening of the climatological flow with stronger easterlies in the Caribbean and stronger southeasterlies in the Gulf of Mexico. This first mode of variability of the IA-LLJ is related mainly to the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern as the PNA modulates the pressure in the southeast region of the U.S. Consequently, there is an increase in precipitation over the MORB region as the moisture fluxes associated with the IA-LLJ increase. Tornadic activity in nine states spanning the MORB region is also significantly related to the IA-LLJ and the PNA index for March, in addition to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Niño indexes. Among the environmental factors that influence tornadic activity are southwesterly wind shear, dry transients at the midtroposphere, moist transients at low levels, and an increase in convective available potential energy (CAPE). The decadal shifts in MORB precipitation and tornado activity appear to be related to the decadal shift of the IA-LLJ.

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Interactions between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, El Niño/La Niña, and the PNA in winter Mississippi Valley stream flow

Cited by 93 publications

References 13 publications

Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity

Tree-ring isotope records of tropical cyclone activity

Atmospheric aspects of the 2008 Midwest floods: a repeat of 1993?

The boreal spring variability of the Intra-Americas low-level jet and its relation with precipitation and tornadoes in the eastern United States

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