Interaction of consumer prices growth dynamics and inflation expectations in Ukraine

KHOKHYCH, Dmytro

doi:10.33763/finukr2020.04.064

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Consequently, the NBU strengthened monetary policy from the beginning of 2021, by increasing the discount rate [43].…”

Section: The Inflation Targeting Regime In Ukraine and Czech Republic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During 2022, in order to maintain the fixed hryvnia exchange rate as well as ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market, the NBU carried out significant interventions on the sale of foreign currency at the expense of both the reserves accumulated in the past years, and the international partners support in 2022 43 . Due to the implemented restrictions, it was possible to tame panic and speculative demand, as well as restrain the withdrawal of capital abroad [46].…”

Section: The Inflation Targeting Regime In Ukraine and Czech Republic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…42 The Board of the NBU decided to reduce the Key Policy Rate to 22% from July 28, 2023, and to 20% from September 15, 2023. 43 more than 32 billion dollars 44 during the wartime, Ukrainians revised their spending towards the purchase of the most necessary goods and services.…”

Section: The Inflation Targeting Regime In Ukraine and Czech Republic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The inflation targeting regime in Ukraine and Czech Republic: a comparative analysis

Yaremko,

Dumych

2023

SMEU

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The main purpose of this article is to determine the impact of the inflation targeting re-gime on the inflation rates in Ukraine and the Czech Republic, to identify the advantages and disadvantages of its use, to study the evolution and dynamics of inflationary processes in Ukraine and the Czech Republic, as well as the nature and causes of inflation in Ukraine and the Czech Republic. A separate goal is to analyze the conditions and features of the Czech Re-public's experience with the introduction of inflation targeting and the formation of recommen-dations of successful measures to achieve inflation goals for Ukraine. In the paper, the authors examined the practice of applying the inflation targeting regime in Ukraine and the Czech Re-public in order to identify the positive and negative consequences of the implementation of this monetary policy regime. A review of publications has shown varying attitudes towards the in-flation targeting regime. The paper describes the chronology of inflationary processes in the re-searched countries, the dynamics of the consumer price index, the socio-economic consequences and causes of inflation. Attention is focused on the need for state regulation of inflationary pro-cesses. The effectiveness of the anti-inflationary policy was determined. In line with the findings of the study, the prospects for the implementation of an effective monetary anti-inflationary policy aimed at effective regulation of inflationary processes are outlined. The authors conclude that the study of the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) monetary policy is important because it affects inflation, the exchange rate, and economic growth. Economic agents always adjust fi-nancial risks, keeping in mind that historically inflation has been one of the most acute prob-lems for Ukraine , which has an uneven constant development. This study is aimed at determin-ing the nature and causes of modern inflation in Ukraine and in Czech Republic and the possi-bility of its regulation by monetary methods. Differences in the dynamics of inflation processes in the presented countries indicate that inflation in each country has specific features related to pricing, purchasing power, money circulation, anti-inflationary and countercyclical policies. However, unevenness and cyclical development of inflation is typical for the studied countries. The results of this study are of interest to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, as well as the Committee on Ukraine's Integration into the European Union, whereas the processes of European integration contribute to reducing inflation in the future. The authors conclude that in the process of creating effective economic policy, it is necessary to use the experience of other countries that have achieved stable, multi-year success in this pro-cess. This study highlights the discussion about inflation targeting experience in the transition economies of Ukraine and Czech Republic. The authors emphasize that circumstances that led to the transition from exchange rate pegging to inflation targeting have made significant pro-gress in reducing inflation. The authors discovered that the focus of inflation-targeting by cen-tral banks should be on the medium-term horizon in order to ensure inflation reduction as well as inflation level appropriate for price stability.

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“…Consequently, the NBU strengthened monetary policy from the beginning of 2021, by increasing the discount rate [43].…”

Section: The Inflation Targeting Regime In Ukraine and Czech Republic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Inflation Targeting Regime In Ukraine and Czech Republic...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The inflation targeting regime in Ukraine and Czech Republic: a comparative analysis

Yaremko,

Dumych

2023

SMEU

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“…Considering the impact of inflation on socio-political and economic life, various aspects of its research are presented in the works of many domestic and foreign scientists. The mutual influence of the growth of consumer prices and inflationary expectations in Ukraine was studied in the work of Khokhych (Khokhych, 2020). In the work of Gitis et al (Gitis et al, 2020), the problem of the impact of rising consumer prices on the level of income of the population is raised.…”

Section: Problem Statement and Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy

2022

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The movement of Ukrainian guest workers in the direction of Poland until 2019 was predominantly transnational in nature, as there was a constant movement of labor migrants between the national spaces of Ukraine and Poland with financial participation in the economies of the two countries at the same time. This fact is confirmed by the results of empirical sociological researches conducted by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, the Cedos analytical agency, the Personnel Service employment agency, the Gremi Personal, and the statistical data of the International Organization for Migration, the State Migration Service of Ukraine, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Family and Social Development of Poland. However, the trends changed dramatically due to the global COVID-19 epidemic, later in 2022 with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The desire for temporary, pendulum labor mobility gave way to the desire to leave Ukraine forever and settle abroad with the whole family. A new migration trend may be associated with the movement to Poland of Ukrainian men who come after the end of the war to reunite with their families, who were moved there earlier since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine.

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“…The mutual influence of the growth of consumer prices and inflationary expectations in Ukraine is studied in the work of D. Khokhych [11]. T. Gitis [12] raises the problem of the influence of the growth of consumer prices on the level of income of the population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A forecasting the consumer price index using time series model

et al. 2021

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This article examines the behavior of the consumer price index in Ukraine for the period from January 2010 to September 2020. The characteristics of the initial time series, the analysis of autocorrelation functions made it possible to reveal the tendency of their development and the presence of annual seasonality. To model the behavior of the consumer price index and forecast for the next months, two types of models were used: the additive ARIMA*ARIMAS model, better known as the model of Box-Jenkins and the exponential smoothing model with the seasonality estimate of Holt-Winters. As a result of using the STATISTICA package, the most adequate models were built, reflecting the monthly dynamics of the consumer price index in Ukraine. The inflation forecast was carried out on the basis of the Holt-Winters model, which has a minimum error.

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Interaction of consumer prices growth dynamics and inflation expectations in Ukraine

Cited by 3 publications

References 18 publications

The inflation targeting regime in Ukraine and Czech Republic: a comparative analysis

The inflation targeting regime in Ukraine and Czech Republic: a comparative analysis

Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy

A forecasting the consumer price index using time series model

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