Inter‐model Spread of the Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon System in CMIP5/6 Models

Zhou, Shijie; Huang, Gang; Huang, Ping

doi:10.1029/2020jd033016

Cited by 23 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Recently, Zhou et al (2020) conducted studies on the dynamical variability of the future projection of the EASM by using empirical-orthogonal-function analyses for the June-July-August averages. While their approach is useful to elucidate large-scale seasonal features, the present study highlights the usefulness of simple correlation analyses to elucidate local sub-seasonal features and to further investigate their mechanisms.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As for the location, Seo et al (2013) showed that the multi-model ensemble-mean (MME) based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 experiments of CMIP5 exhibited little meridional shift of EASM precipitation from the late twentieth century to the late twenty-first century. Possible future changes of the EASM are also investigated by many other studies (e.g., Li et al 2011;Freychet et al 2015;Chen and Bordoni 2016;Chen et al 2020;Zhou et al 2020;Jiang et al 2021;Endo et al 2021). A review is presented by Kitoh (2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Inter-model variability of the CMIP5 future projection of Baiu, Meiyu, and Changma precipitation

2022

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Many studies have suggested that mean precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) will be increased by the ongoing global warming, but its quantitative projection by climate models has large variability, with some models suggesting even decreases. We investigate the inter-model variability of projected centennial changes of the EASM separately for Baiu over Japan, Meiyu over eastern China, and Changma over Korea by using monthly-mean model outputs provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project. Results with the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are consolidated by normalizing with the global-mean near-surface air temperature changes. For all the three EASM land regions, inter-model differences in the mean precipitation changes are positively correlated with the southerly moisture flux changes to the south of the regions. The correlation is highest in June among the June-to-August months, whose reason may be because precipitation in early summer relies on large-scale southerly moisture transport. These changes are localized and nearly independent among the three regions where Baiu, Meiyu and Changma occur. The low-level southerly change to the south of Japan, which affects the Baiu precipitation change, is positively correlated with upper-tropospheric meridional wind to its north; it further exhibits a stationary Rossby-wave feature associated with the Silk-Road teleconnection. This study suggests that future changes in the EASM mean precipitation depend on circulation changes and more-or-less localized.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-model variability of the CMIP5 future projection of Baiu, Meiyu, and Changma precipitation

2022

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“…In this study regressed anomalies are calculated in each model rst and then are averaged across the models with equal weights, which is denoted as the MME. The inter-model consensus is considered as high if more than 70% of models agree on the sign of the MME (Jiang et The MV-EOF analysis can capture dominant patterns in the spatial phase relationships among several related variables, which favors physical insight into the interactive processes within a complex climate system (Wang 1992;Wang et al 2008a;Zhou et al 2019;Zhou et al 2020). In this study, the MME value of each variable is rst removed before the inter-model MV-EOF, and then each variable is standardized to coherent magnitude.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biases and improvements of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon teleconnection in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

et al. 2022

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The in uence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is investigated based on the outputs of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models and compared to that in phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that the CMIP6 models generally reproduce the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection more realistically than the CMIP5 models, although they still somewhat underestimate the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection than observed. Based on the inter-model spread of ENSO-EAWM teleconnection simulated in the CMIP5/CMIP6 models, we reveal that the commonly underestimated ENSO-EAWM teleconnection among the models can be traced back to the excessive cold tongue bias in the equatorial western Paci c. A model with a stronger climatological cold tongue favors generating a more westward extension of the ENSO-related SST anomaly pattern, which in turn forces an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Northwest Paci c (NWP). It offsets the anticyclonic anomalies in the NWP triggered by the warm ENSO-related SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Paci c and weakens the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection. Compared with the CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models better simulate SST mean state and the resultant ENSO-EAWM teleconnection. The present results suggest that substantial efforts should be made to reduce the bias in the mean-state SST for further improving the simulation and projection of the East Asian-western Paci c winter climate.

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“…In this study regressed anomalies are calculated in each model rst and then are averaged across the models with equal weights, which is denoted as the MME. The inter-model consensus is considered as high if more than 70% of models agree on the sign of the MME (Jiang et al The MV-EOF analysis can capture dominant patterns in the spatial phase relationships among several related variables, which favors physical insight into the interactive processes within a complex climate system (Wang 1992;Wang et al 2008a;Zhou et al 2019;Zhou et al 2020). In this study, the MME value of each variable is rst removed before the inter-model MV-EOF, and then each variable is standardized to coherent magnitude.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biases and Improvements of the ENSO- East Asian Winter Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Jiang

Gong

Huang

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is investigated based on the outputs of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models and compared to that in phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that the CMIP6 models generally reproduce the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection more realistically than the CMIP5 models, although they still somewhat underestimate the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection than observed. Based on the inter-model spread of ENSO-EAWM teleconnection simulated in the CMIP5/CMIP6 models, we reveal that the commonly underestimated ENSO-EAWM teleconnection among the models can be traced back to the excessive cold tongue bias in the equatorial western Pacific. A model with a stronger climatological cold tongue favors generating a more westward extension of the ENSO-related SST anomaly pattern, which in turn forces an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Northwest Pacific (NWP). It offsets the anticyclonic anomalies in the NWP triggered by the warm ENSO-related SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific and weakens the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection. Compared with the CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models better simulate SST mean state and the resultant ENSO-EAWM teleconnection. The present results suggest that substantial efforts should be made to reduce the bias in the mean-state SST for further improving the simulation and projection of the East Asian-western Pacific winter climate.

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Inter‐model Spread of the Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon System in CMIP5/6 Models

Abstract: The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), impacting the lives of more than 1.5 billion people, is a complex climate system independent from the South Asia summer monsoon (e.g.

Cited by 23 publications

References 60 publications

Inter-model variability of the CMIP5 future projection of Baiu, Meiyu, and Changma precipitation

Inter-model variability of the CMIP5 future projection of Baiu, Meiyu, and Changma precipitation

Biases and improvements of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon teleconnection in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Biases and Improvements of the ENSO- East Asian Winter Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

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