Inter‐annual variability of fruit timing and quantity at Nouragues (French Guiana): insights from hierarchical Bayesian analyses

Mendoza, Irene; Condit, Richard; Wright, S. Joseph; Caubère, Adeline; Châtelet, Patrick; Hardy, Isabelle; Forget, Pierre‐Michel

doi:10.1111/btp.12560

Cited by 30 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 67 publications

(135 reference statements)

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“…, Mendoza et al . ). Evolutionary histories and pressures driving flowering and fruiting are likely to be different in forests on different continents and, equally, even at a continental scale, may contrast greatly between West and East Africa (Slik et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Annual cycles are the most common reproductive strategy in African tropical tree communities

et al. 2018

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We present the first cross‐continental comparison of the flowering and fruiting phenology of tropical forests across Africa. Flowering events of 5446 trees from 196 species across 12 sites and fruiting events of 4595 trees from 191 species across 11 sites were monitored over periods of 6 to 29 years and analyzed to describe phenology at the continental level. To study phenology, we used Fourier analysis to identify the dominant cycles of flowering and fruiting for each individual tree and we identified the time of year African trees bloom and bear fruit and their relationship to local seasonality. Reproductive strategies were diverse, and no single regular cycle was found in >50% of individuals across all 12 sites. Additionally, we found annual flowering and fruiting cycles to be the most common. Sub‐annual cycles were the next most common for flowering, whereas supra‐annual patterns were the next most common for fruiting. We also identify variation in different subsets of species, with species exhibiting mainly annual cycles most common in West and West Central African tropical forests, while more species at sites in East Central and East African forests showed cycles ranging from sub‐annual to supra‐annual. Despite many trees showing strong seasonality, at most sites some flowering and fruiting occurred all year round. Environmental factors with annual cycles are likely to be important drivers of seasonal periodicity in trees across Africa, but proximate triggers are unlikely to be constant across the continent.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Annual cycles are the most common reproductive strategy in African tropical tree communities

et al. 2018

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“…The research agenda should encourage the standardization of the best methods for each research question and must seek to identify and mitigate sources of noisy data in these inherently complex systems . The inclusion of better biometric expertise in research teams will allow the field to progress in dealing with the imperfect empirical datasets common in large, long-term endeavors (Bush et al 2017, Hudson & Keatley 2010, Mendoza et al 2018.…”

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Current issues in tropical phenology: a synthesis

et al. 2018

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We retrace the development of tropical phenology research, compare temperate phenology study to that in the tropics and highlight the advances currently being made in this flourishing discipline. The synthesis draws attention to how fundamentally different tropical phenology data can be to temperate data. Tropical plants lack a phase of winter dormancy and may grow and reproduce continually. Seasonal patterns in environmental parameters, such as rainfall, irradiance or temperature, do not necessarily coincide temporally, as they do in temperate climes. We review recent research on the drivers of phenophase cycles in individual trees, species and communities and highlight how significant innovations in biometric tools and approaches are being driven by the need to deal with circular data, the complexity of defining tropical seasons and the myriad growth and reproductive strategies used by tropical plants. We discuss how important the use of leaf phenology (or remotely‐sensed proxies of leaf phenophases) has become in tracking biome responses to climate change at the continental level and how important the phenophase of forests can be in determining local weather conditions. We also highlight how powerful analyses of plant responses are hampered at many tropical sites by a lack of contextual data on local environmental conditions. We conclude by arguing that there is a clear global benefit in increasing long term tropical phenology data collection and improving empirical collection of local climate measures, contemporary to the phenology data. Directing more resources to research in this sector will be widely beneficial.

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“…() and Mendoza et al . () focuses on timing and cycles rather than cues of tropical phenology. Using a continental comparison across Africa, Adamescu et al .…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Using a novel Bayesian model approach, Mendoza et al . () define variation in the timing and quantity of fruit production at seasonal and inter‐annual scales for a 10‐yr data set from an Amazonian forest in Nouragues, French Guiana. They demonstrate that most species vary substantially across years in fruit production, although changes were greater in terms of quantity than of timing.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Rethinking tropical phenology: insights from long‐term monitoring and novel analytical methods

2018

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Here, we introduce the Special Section (SS) on long‐term monitoring and new analytical methods in tropical phenology. The SS puts together nine original papers plus a synthesis, bringing significant advances and new insights into our understanding of tropical phenology across Africa and tropical America. The papers address environmental cues, methodological shortcomings, and provide innovative analytical approaches, opening new pathways, perspective and applications of tropical phenology for forest management and environmental monitoring. The SS is a substantial step toward a more comprehensive overview of trends in tropical phenology, as seven of nine studies evaluate >10‐yr data sets applying new methods of analysis such as hierarchical Bayesian models, generalized additive models, and Fourier analysis. We argue that it is essential to maintain ongoing monitoring programs and build a tropical phenology network at least for long‐term (>10 yr) study sites, providing the means for national and international financial support. Cross‐continental comparisons are now a primary goal, as we work toward a global vision of trends and shifts in tropical phenology in the Anthropocene.

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Inter‐annual variability of fruit timing and quantity at Nouragues (French Guiana): insights from hierarchical Bayesian analyses

Cited by 30 publications

References 67 publications

Annual cycles are the most common reproductive strategy in African tropical tree communities

Annual cycles are the most common reproductive strategy in African tropical tree communities

Current issues in tropical phenology: a synthesis

Rethinking tropical phenology: insights from long‐term monitoring and novel analytical methods

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